On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the target for its overnight lending rate by 25 bps to a range of 2% to 2.25%. Investors widely expected this cut, but oh boy did Powell leave them wanting more. Asked if he was tamping down expectations for further rate cuts, he asserted, "Let me be clear. What I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts." To his credit, this is a show of atypical transparency by our usually opaque Fed overlords who may not want markets pricing in additional easing. But, is it just us, or does this comment remind anyone of George Bush Sr.'s infamous words spoken at the 1988 Republican National Convention: "Read my lips, no new taxes!"?

If this isn't the start of a rate-cutting cycle, what is it? Well, our own Tom Lee has been writing that the US economy is in mid-cycle, not late-cycle since the start of the year and Powell agrees…"We’re thinking of it as essentially in the nature of a mid-cycle adjustment to policy." So there it is folks, a mid-cycle adjustment to support the economy's current expansion, and confirmation that Tom's macro call has been right all along.

Still, if in fact this economy is in mid-cycle, the question we must ask is whether such a policy action was justified, or if Trump has suc...

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