Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook… more signs inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts Fed rate path. Thus, every report is an inflation report. But as we have discussed previously, there are many emerging signs that economic activity/inflation is...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding an overly strong economy. As we discuss below, even if this proves to be a positive payrolls surprise, the underlying...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
2022 Is a “Pie In The Face” Kind of Year, Thoughts on Netflix
If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a “pie in the face” year. The world is facing several key turning points...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
3 Reasons Why Stocks Might Be Strengthening, Bond Market Seems to Be “Changing Its Mind”
Yesterday’s CPI report is an example of this. The CPI Core (ex-food and energy) was +0.3% month over month, improving over Feb’s +0.5% and the...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
“Finkle Is Einhorn?!”- Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Explained, Granny Shots Updated
We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Despite a flat out bad June CPI report, Fed officials sound “measured” (vs “expeditious”)…arguably enabling equities to see “less bad”
In the 36 hours since the horrific June CPI report, equities have managed to better with Technology stocks managing gains.initial “hawkish” market reaction was to price near 100% odds of +100bp for July hikebut as the Fed funds futures chart shows, this was reversed during the trading session Thuthis is...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Rates And Inflation Possibly Peaking? History Says ‘Sell The Buildup, Buy The Invasion’
As we know, the rise in rates has been sending increasingly large ripples of panic across equity markets. Thus, a peak in rates is a...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Markets Have Challenging Week, Energy Continues Outperformance
Of course, our base case for 2022 (from early Dec) was the 1H of 2022 would be treacherous, but this has been worse than we...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Despite Facebook Earnings, Our Base Case of Violent Upside February Move Remains Intact
Markets were roiled by the Facebook earnings miss this week. The stock declined around 26% yesterday in response which was the largest single-day decline of...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Retail Sentiment is Now The Worst Since April 2014, An 8-yr New Low In Sentiment
So oddly, double vaxxed Canadians are seeing a higher rate of confirmed cases. The article below offers two explanations for this:vaxxed people are more likely...