Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Macro Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Don’t Wait For Fed: Fed Raising rates 48% of periods since 1954 and equities often turn 6M before last “hike”
Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the trifecta of rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and “negative shocks” delivered by Fed hawkish policy. But as a counterpoint, one can be constructive if one believes...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
The August 1982 moment: bear market “bottom” before Fed pivots – if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect
The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the “bottom is in” — the 2022 bear market is over.this was a big data week, with FOMC, 2Q GDP, housing and PCE (today)a huge miss on GDP, yet markets rallyFed raises +75bp and says...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Despite a flat out bad June CPI report, Fed officials sound “measured” (vs “expeditious”)…arguably enabling equities to see “less bad”
In the 36 hours since the horrific June CPI report, equities have managed to better with Technology stocks managing gains.initial “hawkish” market reaction was to...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Incoming economic “hard” data won’t reflect increasing signs of disinflation. Visibility on “I” matters more than “e”
There will be several incoming “hard” data points that will impact market views on inflation and economy and therefore impact Fed policy. Paramount remains inflation...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Less “I” on horizon. Markets can see through weaker “e” if “I” disinflating
Cooling of inflation (“i”) aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Inflation showing decisive “break” in pattern. Rally strengthening = focus on lower quality. 6 names. 2H rally intact.
The rally seen in equity markets post-CPI has been largely met with skepticism. This is essentially true of the gains seen over the past week and past month. Below is a comment from a sellside strategist and is emblematic of the pushback we get from clients (keep in mind, the...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook… more signs inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Multiple signs economy shifting to “buyer’s market” vs seller’s = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening
Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions,...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
DeMark webinar takeaways: S&P 500 to have one more selloff then “shocking” rally coming (within days)
Today’s note is a recap from our webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics and Symbolik. com. Tom DeMark has gained a large following...
