If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a “pie in the face” year. The world is facing several key turning points (inflation, supply chains, monetary policy, war) and these combined effects are impacting equities, bonds and commodities in a way not seen in the past 30 years. While our base case for 1H2022 was “treacherous,” the realized treachery is far greater.

  • but as painful as equities have been since the start of 2022
  • our base case is that 2/24/2022 is the “low” for 1H2022
  • and while stocks won’t go straight up, we think risk/reward still remains attractive 6M to 12M out
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Capital gains taxes owed on 4/18/2022 estimated largest in history >$800 billion (for tax year 2021)

Equities have fallen in a straight line since late March (13 trading sessions) and the decline continued into April 18th. We have written about the impact from IRS taxpayer deadlines for this effect:

  • we highlighted stocks tend to do worse into tax day when prior year (tax year) gains strong
  • this is due to cash raised to pay for taxes
  • we highlighted that we estimate 2021 capital gains taxes owed likely >$800 billion, a record
  • and another $150 billion or more for crypto capital gains
The video in this report is only accessible to members
This is our rough math for how we derived $800 ...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)