7D Delta for New Cases Flat, Focus on Structural Tailwind

The decline in daily cases seems to be paused. They have been flat over the past 12 days as you can see below. We suspect that we will likely not see the usual corresponding uptick in hospitalizations and deaths since vaccination penetration of the most vulnerable cohorts has been extensive. Indeed, US hospitalizations are still rolling over as are deaths. US Net Hospitalizations and US Daily Mortality have declined 73.2% and 70.5% since their highs in wave three respectively.

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Importantly, the significant progress by the United States in vaccine penetration is starting to make itself shown in the data. Vaccination efforts in Latin America and Europe have been far less effective than those in the United States and you can see the path of new cases is clearly starting to diverge.

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Thankfully, progress seems to be forthcoming in both these areas as access to more vaccines seems likely. Remember, our initial efforts didn’t go perfect either. The evidence from Israel is also highly encouraging. Once they reached 26% of their population vaccinated cases began rolling over hard presumably since infected plus vaccinated resulted in R0 collapsing. The United States has just reached that level and progress is continuing at a rapid pace. The US is vac...
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