After notching four consecutive days of gains, the S&P 500 took a well-deserved break and finished flat on Friday, leaving a massive 7.3% weekly rally intact. I consider this a huge win, especially in the face of a still undecided election outcome. Since the start of this rally at the end of October, we are now nearing the September 2020 highs around 3,580. And I see further upside into year end. More on this below.

As for COVID-19, the spread continues at an accelerating pace. This week, daily cases came in above 100,000 for the first time and they seem set to rise further.  The fastest spread remains in the wave three states, in particular, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU.

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Within WIINSU, the most rapid spreads are in North Dakota and South Dakota. In these states, daily cases per one million residents are roughly four times the amplitude seen in wave one and wave two states. Wow. These states also have very low levels of testing (the positivity rate is >50%) and daily deaths per one million residents, while still below the peaks seen in New York City/Tristate region, have surpassed Italy in its darkest days.

Peeling back the onion another layer, I think county level data bears watching; especially in these states that are seeing massive outbreaks. Lo...

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