If I had to identify the biggest development in the past week, it is the miraculous recovery of President Trump. Recall, earlier this year, many people would have cited a "black swan event" for the 2020 elections is one of the two candidates getting COVID-19. Well, it happened, and in a few days, President Trump seems to be back in good health. And it seems like the ball has moved forward (maybe inches) on incremental progress on fiscal stimulus. This is a good development.

But the progress of COVID-19 has not been necessarily positive. Daily cases are rising and surged to 53,572, the first >50,000 daily cases figure since mid-August (see chart nearby). There is an uptick in daily hospitalizations, but the coefficient is a lot lower. So, we are in that phase where one can credibly dismiss the rise as "more testing" or "mini-surge" but the thing that would worry me, is if this turns into an exponential rise.

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This only highlights how important positive progress on therapeutics and/or a vaccine is. President Trump's recovery seems to be a big win on the cure "column" and if that is correct, this rise in cases is less concerning. That is, because a timeline for a cure is also becoming more visible. Daily deaths are still trending lower and for the moment, that is the good ...

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