For the past three weeks, equities faltered as a renewed set of concerns has undermined the generally positive narrative building a heightened sense of dread heading into critical election day (11/3). And given that stocks saw such prodigious gains since March, and especially August, is it any wonder why we are seeing some profit taking? At the same time, there are some certainties on future market performance, which I will discuss more below.

On the COVID-19 daily case data front, the seven-day delta, which is the key leading indicator I pay close attention to, breached into positive territory on Thursday indicating a slight daily increase in cases week over week yesterday. It is worth noting that this positive seven-day delta may be impacted by a data quality issue of Washington and/or Puerto Rico. Overall, it is still too early to draw a conclusion based on one -day’s data. Case trends over the next few days are worth watching.

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Last Friday we hosted a webinar with Chris Murray, Head Scientist for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (“IHME”). IHME sees a US second wave of COVID-19 cases starting in early October and pushing daily deaths to 4,000 (mid-case) and as high as 8,000 per day. Nevertheless, one of the over-arching messages was that public p...

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