This week has been an exceptionally positive week in COVID-19 daily case data. For each of the last four weekdays, cases have been down vs 7 days ago and despite some expected backlog for the long weekend, we did not see any "payback." At this pace, daily cases will likely fall below 20,000 next week even with back to school and other headwinds.

At a high level, our research this week shows that daily cases are falling sustainably in 73% of the US while only about 27% of the country is seeing stubborn trends. And while headlines continue to point to rising case figures, this is primarily attributable to seasonality, as the underlying data points to a rapid retreat in cases.

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- This week we highlighted 21 states where cases have remained stubbornly high. Going forward, the trend in these states is the most important one to watch.

- I have been looking for a day of "payback" where the long holiday weekend would have resulted in a backlog of cases. Instead we have seen the daily cases change vs 7 days ago, the key leading indicator that we track, continue to drop. See chart on left.

Strategy: I view the AAII survey, or American Association of Individual Investors, as one of the standard bearers of retail investor sentiment. The members are now much older, typicall...

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