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COVID-19 Case Trends Remain Positive; Market Reaches ATH

This has been a very good week for US COVID-19 case data. After all, the case figures this week cement that the trend is downwards for organic case growth. But we also think that markets will start to shift their thinking about COVID-19 from “change in cases” to “level of cases.” That is, it will start to focus more on the question of “when is COVID-19 under control” in the US.

The benchmark many cite is a positivity rate <10%, but the current rate is 6.5% and it does not seem like...

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