(COVID-19 remains a global crisis and we realize that many people need to keep up with COVID-19 developments, particularly since we are moving into the more critical stage ("restart economy"), so feel free to share our commentary with anyone who has interest.)

Uncertainty about the path of COVID-19 worsened this week, as US overall cases rose to new highs and US deaths seemed to "step-up" to 800 per day (past 3 days) vs 500 or so a week ago. And the path of COVID-19 in the US has departed from Western Europe and Asia, both other regions seeing cases generally fall.

But these are not all entirely negative developments. Many states have taken significant actions, including mandating masks and thus, this surge is not growing without action. But I also cannot escape our general view that this surge has 3 factors: (i) nationwide protests created 10000X super spreader events; (ii) significant imported cases from Mexico and Latin America, explaining the surge in FL, CA, AZ, TX (or F-CAT) and the Southern States, generally and (iii) lax compliance with PPE, mitigation (etc.).

And on top of that, equity markets do not like "contested/close" elections. So, the tightening of the Presidential race is further fueling market hesitation. So there are just more building blocks for a wa...

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