This week saw progress in the US on two fronts: first in healthcare (potential vaccine being developed by Moderna (MRNA) and others) and steps forward to re-open the US economy. However, a return to normalcy is more than retail openings and outdoor dining; it is as much about sports, traveling, business travel and entertainment. There will be a short-term cost to meet new compliance, and procedures initially will seem inconvenient. Over time they likely will become part of the new normal.

Daily case growth has been stubbornly flat. While there will be concerns about a second wave (which has not been evident in any nation or region opening), the consensus among health experts is that such a potential wave is probably more likely when flu season returns in the US (late Fall). More below. Nevertheless, this is progress, and perhaps better than many imagined in early March. But COVID-19 is not necessarily fading around the rest of the world, as global daily case counts are still elevated.

POINT #1: In the US, case numbers have stayed stubbornly high. Granted, part of this is an increase in testing which was >430,000 Thursday (annualizes to 150 mln tests), but it also says that prevalence in the US is just lingering. I wonder if it is realistic to expect cases to fall to...

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