I’ve been bullish on U.S. equities all of 2019 and we might have reached an inflection point on whether this ten-year old bull will trot on or, as the bears suggest—incorrectly so far—keel over.

There’s plenty of doom and gloom out there about a U.S. recession and a global economic slowdown, but below I present numerous factors that the pessimists are ignoring, to their peril. They include market history, the likelihood of an industrial inflection point, and the Fed’s easing. Additionally, sectors highly sensitive to an improving cycle, both US and global, are rallying, a good sign.

For one thing, history is with the optimists. While past returns don’t guarantee future ones, a look at what the market has done in similar years implies the Standard & Poor’s 500 index should close over 3,200, significantly above the current level.

The S&P 500 closed out October with a 2.0% gain, bringing the year to date return to 21%, the best since 2013 and 14th best since 1930. Yet for much of this year, even as investors have been skeptical of sustainability of the gains, U.S. equities have fared well nonetheless.

History doesn’t always repeat but it is often instructive. Markets that see strong yeartodate gains tend to see follow through into the final eight...

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