The ongoing debt ceiling negotiations and lack of a deal between the White House and the GOP continues to dominate the overall equity markets and creates ripples with each headline that hits the tape.  Also, a big factor that has everyone’s attention is AI and the top 10 technology names that have had an upward surge in their stock prices.  Indeed, the outsized impact of these stocks on the weighted S&P 500 has caused some to suggest that the index has begun a new bull market, and that there is talk of investors feeling the need to put money to work in fears of missing out on additional gains.  Over the last week, some competitor sell-side strategists have either tempered their bearishness or actually flipped to more constructive solely on the S&P 500’s popping its head over 4200 and creating the appearance that a clear upside breakout was imminent. 

I read and hear about the cases for upside potential, and almost all of them are centered around the technical analysis/price momentum of the weighted S&P 500 or NDX and that the sentiment/positioning is still quite bearish.  I have asked clients who are bullish to make their case for significant and sustainable upside using additional points, and most have a hard time doing so. The o...

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