Macro Strategy

- Macro Minute Video

- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Thursday’s negative -3% gap opening is 7th largest in 40 years and echoes of COVID. But after the close, hints that Trump wants to negotiate = positive
VIDEO: Market saw enormous selling pressure driven by the absurd levels of tariffs and the repeated comments by Lutnick that there is no negotiations. After the close, Trump stated the opposite and views tariffs as giving great power to negotiate Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:13). https://vimeo. com/1072399975/0be97a3446?...

- First Word
Shock and negative awe at Liberation Day. But terms so absurd, probabilities favor negotiations. 6 nations key
VIDEO: the terms of Liberation were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that these look to be a negotiating tactic. And ultimately only 6 countries matter. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 11:23). https://vimeo. com/1072010033/c952521ccf? share=copy The unveiling of new U.S. tariff terms has jolted markets, but...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to...
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First Word
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian...
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- First Word
Trump "put" confirmed, alleviating important pressure value and confirming fork to the positive case
Today marked an obvious meaningful turn as the 90-day delay in the reciprocal tariffs firmly puts the U.S. back on a positive path. There are multiple positive developments and these are coming at a time when I was frankly becoming quite nervous about the risk of a recession.Confirms return of...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: March Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:07) https://vimeo. com/1067149600/da81d7170a? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed...
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First Word
While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed FOMC to be dovish and positive for stocks
VIDEO: The absence of Washington headlines has been positive for stocks on Monday. As we said on Sunday, we expect this week to be positive for...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed FOMC to be dovish and positive for stocks
VIDEO: The absence of Washington headlines has been positive for stocks on Monday. As we said on Sunday, we expect this week to be positive for...
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First Word
March FOMC meeting Wed is key focus this week. Incoming data likely shows broadening weakess (but is it priced in?). And is $NVDA rally a sign China deal is near?
For the first time in awhile (weeks?), the weekend was quiet from a policy perspective (consider last Sunday’s “there will be pain”). And this likely...
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