Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:11). https://vimeo. com/1062988958/f1f23f394e? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet...
- First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against market timing. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03). https://vimeo. com/1062616926/a4d5cd19f0? share=copy The rise in tariff uncertainty and relentless selling in stocks in the...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize
VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below...
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First Word
Conference Board survey further adds to "growth scare" concerns. But we continue to see as a "flesh wound" and turnaround likely Wed with $NVDA results.
VIDEO: The cumulation of headlines in recent weeks is adding up to a "Growth scare" for investors. And thus, good news is what is needed...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Conference Board survey further adds to "growth scare" concerns. But we continue to see as a "flesh wound" and turnaround likely Wed with $NVDA results.
VIDEO: The cumulation of headlines in recent weeks is adding up to a "Growth scare" for investors. And thus, good news is what is needed...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later
VIDEO: This 10% correction is the 5th fastest in the last 75 years and history argues this is indiscriminate rage selling. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:23). https://vimeo. com/1064868423/8dd2a3056c? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equities continue to sell-off given lack of visibility of tariffs clouds near-term outlook but odds...
First Word
Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
Despite "hot" Jan CPI, equity markets barely decline. 5 reasons we believe explains this mild reaction
VIDEO: We discuss 5 likely reasons equities barely reacted to a disappointing and "hot" Jan CPI report. Thu is Jan PPI and if it is...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Despite "hot" Jan CPI, equity markets barely decline. 5 reasons we believe explains this mild reaction
VIDEO: We discuss 5 likely reasons equities barely reacted to a disappointing and "hot" Jan CPI report. Thu is Jan PPI and if it is...
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