Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:11). https://vimeo. com/1062988958/f1f23f394e? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet...
- First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against market timing. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03). https://vimeo. com/1062616926/a4d5cd19f0? share=copy The rise in tariff uncertainty and relentless selling in stocks in the...
First Word
$NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize
VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE, which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below to...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize
VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below...
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First Word
Conference Board survey further adds to "growth scare" concerns. But we continue to see as a "flesh wound" and turnaround likely Wed with $NVDA results.
VIDEO: The cumulation of headlines in recent weeks is adding up to a "Growth scare" for investors. And thus, good news is what is needed...
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- First Word
Equities continue to sell-off given lack of visibility of tariffs clouds near-term outlook but odds rising of a dovish Fed
VIDEO: Equities failed to follow thru from Friday's bounce. We discuss several important events this week including the Biz Roundtable Tue and Wed CPI. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:46). https://vimeo. com/1064528155/225279623b? share=copy Markets experienced a challenging day today, as the S&P 500 fell sharply by 2.7%, marking the...
First Word
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns "never short a dull market
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
February Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update + SMID Granny February Rebalance +25 adds/ -24 deletes.
TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK FOR OUR MARKET UPDATE WEBINAR, PLEASE CLICK HERE. VIDEO: We discuss our macro views 6 weeks into 2025 including the...
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First Word
Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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