Macro Strategy
- First Word
- First Word
Reciprocal tariffs started last night. Markets remain hesitant as financial conditions tighten, but agree with Newton that near-term probabilities favor a rally.
NO VIDEO TODAY: I AM ON A CONTINENTAL FLIGHT TODAY SO UNABLE TO RECORD A VIDEO The fact that President Trump signed the executive order for 104% tariffs for China is not positive, but it was also mostly expected. Every single day since tariff "Liberation Day" has brought news events...
- First Word
Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
VIDEO: The message from the White House has changed from "no negotiation on tariffs" to "President has maximum leverage to negotiate" which we see as signaling the return of the Trump put. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 07:57). https://vimeo. com/1073395299/fa09750e5f? share=copy Markets began Monday anticipating a major sell-off,...
First Word
Shock and negative awe at Liberation Day. But terms so absurd, probabilities favor negotiations. 6 nations key
VIDEO: the terms of Liberation were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that these look to be a negotiating tactic. And ultimately only...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Shock and negative awe at Liberation Day. But terms so absurd, probabilities favor negotiations. 6 nations key
VIDEO: the terms of Liberation were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that these look to be a negotiating tactic. And ultimately only...
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First Word
6 reasons we believe Pres Trump wants stock market to rally post-Liberation day. And does political affiliation explain why the stock market and bond market disagree?
VIDEO: As Liberation day approaches, the key question is whether the White House cares how the stock market reacts. We discuss the 6 reasons President...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development. Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks
VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:44). https://vimeo. com/1075160515/0e1eb66519? share=copy ------------------------- _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to...
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First Word
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian...
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First Word
S&P 500 close above 5,703 confirms rally underway. $TSLA remains "Exhibit A" for a V-shaped recovery and why a Trump "put" exists
VIDEO: We discuss several positive technical developments today and why $TSLA is Exhibit A on whether there is a V-shaped recovery in stocks and of...
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