Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- First Word
Trump "put" confirmed, alleviating important pressure value and confirming fork to the positive case
Today marked an obvious meaningful turn as the 90-day delay in the reciprocal tariffs firmly puts the U.S. back on a positive path. There are multiple positive developments and these are coming at a time when I was frankly becoming quite nervous about the risk of a recession.Confirms return of...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Trump "put" confirmed, alleviating important pressure value and confirming fork to the positive case
VIDEO: Wednesday was an important day because it signaled a turn in the White House and a turn of economic trajectory Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 05:44). https://vimeo. com/1074096918/faa114195e? share=copy ------------------------- _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We got tariff liberation day wrong. The White House broke a core covenant of capitalism. But stocks stretched to downside (and excessive recession risk) and we see high probability of de-escalation.
VIDEO: We believe stocks have overshot to the downside, even as technical damage is enormous and requires patience to repair. Please click below to view...
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First Word
Thursday’s negative -3% gap opening is 7th largest in 40 years and echoes of COVID. But after the close, hints that Trump wants to negotiate = positive
VIDEO: Market saw enormous selling pressure driven by the absurd levels of tariffs and the repeated comments by Lutnick that there is no negotiations. After...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Thursday’s negative -3% gap opening is 7th largest in 40 years and echoes of COVID. But after the close, hints that Trump wants to negotiate = positive
VIDEO: Market saw enormous selling pressure driven by the absurd levels of tariffs and the repeated comments by Lutnick that there is no negotiations. After...
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- First Word
5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development. Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks
VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive (7:44). https://vimeo. com/1075160515/0e1eb66519? share=copy We view the actions taken by CBP to delay the collection of China reciprocal tariffs as an unequivocal positive, because it points to a further de-escalation...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Monday positive reversal from -1% open is a good sign. Also encouraging to see $TSLA $MSTR #BTC outperform since 3/13/25
VIDEO: The positive reversal Monday is encouraging but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty ahead. What is notable is that several of MAG7 have...
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First Word
Growing signs of panic as we get close to 4/2 tariff "liberation day" but keep in mind Fed Powell speaks at end of week
VIDEO: Markets became decidedly more risk-averse last week post-Auto tariffs and these fears increased over the weekend with news reports of $700b of tariffs ahead. ...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Growing signs of panic as we get close to 4/2 tariff "liberation day" but keep in mind Fed Powell speaks at end of week
VIDEO: Markets became decidedly mere risk-averse last week post-Auto tariffs and these fears increased over the weekend with news reports of $700b of tariffs ahead. ...
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First Word
Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to...
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