Macro Strategy
- First Word
- First Word
Last Friday was important as it showed economy facing "less of a growth scare" while we saw incrementally positive glimmers of both the Trump "put" and Fed "put"
VIDEO: Friday was an important day last week as we saw incrementally positive glimmers of a Trump and Fed put, while economy holding up better than expected. Also Mark Newton thinks we potentially bottomed but follow thru needed this week. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:39). https://vimeo. com/1064100304/5b06949d66?...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Last Friday was important as it showed economy facing "less of a growth scare" while we saw incrementally positive glimmers of both the Trump "put" and Fed "put"
VIDEO: Friday was an important day last week as we saw incrementally positive glimmers of a Trump and Fed put, while economy holding up better than expected. Also Mark Newton thinks we potentially bottomed but follow thru needed this week. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:39). https://vimeo. com/1064100304/5b06949d66?...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later
VIDEO: This 10% correction is the 5th fastest in the last 75 years and history argues this is indiscriminate rage selling. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:23). https://vimeo. com/1064868423/8dd2a3056c? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equities continue to sell-off given lack of visibility of tariffs clouds near-term outlook but odds...
First Word
Even as White House wants lower rates (via DOGE, tariffs, etc), they want to avoid "stall speed" or recession, which means White House "put" still exists.
VIDEO: We believe the White House "put" still exists, as the White House wants to avoid an economy stalling into a recession. Please click below...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Even as White House wants lower rates (via DOGE, tariffs, etc), they want to avoid “stall speed” or recession, which means White House “put” still exists.
VIDEO: We believe the White House "put" still exists, as the White House wants to avoid an economy stalling into a recession. Please click below...
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First Word
$NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize
VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE, which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below to...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize
VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below...
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