Macro Minute Video
Wed, March 5, 2025 | 7:37PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

First Word
Wed, March 5, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.

VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

Macro Minute Video
Tue, March 4, 2025 | 9:12PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.

VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

First Word
Fri, February 28, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

Even as White House wants lower rates (via DOGE, tariffs, etc), they want to avoid "stall speed" or recession, which means White House "put" still exists.

VIDEO: We believe the White House "put" still exists, as the White House wants to avoid an economy stalling into a recession. Please click below...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

Macro Minute Video
Thu, February 27, 2025 | 10:10PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: Even as White House wants lower rates (via DOGE, tariffs, etc), they want to avoid “stall speed” or recession, which means White House “put” still exists.

VIDEO: We believe the White House "put" still exists, as the White House wants to avoid an economy stalling into a recession. Please click below...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

First Word
Thu, February 27, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

$NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize

VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view. This Friday is Jan Core PCE, which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below to...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b

Macro Minute Video
Wed, February 26, 2025 | 9:20PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA results beat consensus and "good enough" in our view for stocks to stabilize

VIDEO: $NVDA results were good enough in our view.  This Friday is Jan Core PCE which will hopefully be softer than consensus. Please click below...

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Visitor: 1cb48c-f8aa35-183fad-e018e2-0adb1b