First Word
US-China trade rhetoric heats up. 2025 proving to be worst year for fund manager in decades, setting up for performance chasing
Video_: _Markets were roiled by China headlines Tuesday, but we ultimately see this as noise. The bigger dynamic at play is the positive seasonals and...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: US-China trade rhetoric heats up. 2025 proving to be worst year for fund manager in decades, setting up for performance chasing
Video_: _Markets were roiled by China headlines Tuesday, but we ultimately see this as noise. The bigger dynamic at play is the positive seasonals and...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Friday 32% surge in VIX seen at 'local low' and points to new highs by mid-Nov. 3Q25 EPS season starts this week, led by banks Tuesday am $JPM $GS $BLK $C
Video_: _The 32% surge in VIX triggered substantial deleveraging, which since 1990 is often a sign of a local low. We expect stocks to rebound...
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First Word
We are keeping our eyes on 5 things in Oct. Key is seasonally strong = S&P 500 7,000 intact
Video_: _The govt shutdown is dovish because it is putting downward pressure on economy = dovish and it is not raising inflation pressures = dovish. ...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We are keeping our eyes on 5 things in Oct. Key is seasonally strong = S&P 500 7,000 intact
Video_: _The govt shutdown is dovish because it is putting downward pressure on economy = dovish and it is not raising inflation pressures = dovish. ...
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First Word
Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Oct off to a good start gaining +0.77% so far and S&P 500 YE target of 7,000 seems low. $AMD affirms AI trade intact
Video_: _The fact that AMD 2.00% surged 20% is a good sign and shows the AI trade remains intact. The fundamental story of AI remains a...
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First Word
History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Heavy data week including jobs, ISM and now a govt shutdown. AI guru Julian warns of exponential "gain of function" for AI
Video_: _This week is a data heavy week, and we expect leans Fed dovish given the risk of economic disruption from a shutdown, and less...
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