First Word
Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed
Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Oct off to a good start gaining +0.77% so far and S&P 500 YE target of 7,000 seems low. $AMD affirms AI trade intact
Video_: _The fact that AMD N/A% surged 20% is a good sign and shows the AI trade remains intact. The fundamental story of AI remains a...
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First Word
History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Heavy data week including jobs, ISM and now a govt shutdown. AI guru Julian warns of exponential "gain of function" for AI
Video_: _This week is a data heavy week, and we expect leans Fed dovish given the risk of economic disruption from a shutdown, and less...
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First Word
S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%... too early to call a top
Video_: _We have been in Seoul this week meeting with investors. To us, it seems like many have expressed concerns about a possible market top...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%… too early to call a top
Video_: _We have been in Seoul this week meeting with investors. To us, it seems like many have expressed concerns about a possible market top...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equites start week with a minor pullback, consistent with 'Sell Roshashana and Buy Yom Kippur' and this minor weakness doesn't alter the positive outlook into YE
Video: We discuss the seasonal weakness around Rosh Hashana and also how the uptick in August new home sales is a positive sign for the...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: $NVDA surges to near all-time highs on OpenAI deal. Focus on Fed Chair Powell Tue at 12:35pm
Video: NVDA -0.48% surged today to near all-time highs on an announced deal with OpenAI. To us, the positive reaction shows that good news is "still...
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First Word
Fed 25bp cut is start of an easing cycle = positive. OW MAG7, Crypto and small-caps/financials
Video_: _The Fed made a dovish cut of 25bp on Wed and this is supportive of stocks over the next 12 months, as a cutting...
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