Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 takeaways from earnings season and why muted reaction to beats is not "late cycle" signal.
VIDEO: The muted reaction to positive EPS, in our view, reflects the cautious macro views (uncertainty) given the stubborn inflation reports. 1Q24 EPS seems more early cycle. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:06). https://vimeo. com/943859472/4df31c0dd0? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Earnings remains the focus of this week, but drop in yields, crude and VIX are corroborating buy in May
VIDEO: We discuss how earnings is the focus this week, but the backdrop for stocks is strengthening given fall in yields, crude and VIX Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:34) https://vimeo. com/943417590/904a5ab1d4? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: GS fund flow data shows investors pulled $22b from equities last week, hardly a sign of a top. Small-caps strengthen as markets believe Fed cuts coming
VIDEO: We discuss how the the $6T in cash on sldelines remains a tremendous support for stocks. And coming Fed cuts benefit small-caps over large...
First Word
Three empirical reasons small-caps set to outperform in 2024 by as much as 50%. R2K EPS growth +690bp faster but trades at a 41% P/E discount. Feb Core PCE (Fri) likely below consensus = good
Recently, I was a panelist at an investment conference (thank you, Stephanie Link, for inviting me) and a snarky panelist, a hedge fund manager, started...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: 3 empirical reasons small-caps set to outperform in 2024 by as much as 50%. R2K EPS growth +690bp faster but trades at a 41% P/E discount. Feb Core PCE (Fri) likely below consensus = good
VIDEO: There is a_ _trifecta of factors supporting small-cap outperformance in 2024 and we detail the fundamental case for small-caps in this video Please click...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Median P/E (2025) ~16X, same as start of year = stay constructive. Softer retail sales and Manheim pricing raises odds of sooner Fed cuts.
VIDEO: The median multiple of the S&P 500 stock is still 16X P/2025 EPS, very reasonable in our view. Softer incoming data this week points to weaker inflation trends, which in turn, is supportive of the Fed moving cuts forward. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:24). https://vimeo. com/961694816/5d23be9666?...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: 4Q23 EPS: 4 reasons EPS results are better than appears on surface, including potential China bottom.
VIDEO: We discuss 4 factors that suggest 4Q23 EPS season stronger than many realize. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:56). https://vimeo....
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Equity markets up 13 of last 14 weeks, a sign of strength, but 7 precedent instances show a near-term peak could happen in next few weeks
VIDEO: Since 1927, we found 7 precedent instances of a rally seeing gains in 13 of 14 weeks. This is a sign of market strength but...
First Word
This week's gauntlet shows equity markets are getting stronger. Earnings visibility strengthening as 43% cos post >10% EPS growth.
VIDEO: We discuss how this week shows the equity markets are getting stronger, handling bad news with resilience and earnings visibility improving. Please click below...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: This week's gauntlet shows equity markets are getting stronger. Earnings visibility strengthening as 43% cos post >10% EPS growth.
VIDEO: We discuss how this week shows the equity markets are getting stronger, handling bad news with resilience and earnings visibility improving. Please click below...
