Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"
VIDEO: We discuss how next week's April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53). https://vimeo. com/944656756/b28aa1c4b0? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16. Full stock list here -> Click here...
- First Word
5 takeaways from earnings season and why muted reaction to beats is not "late cycle" signal.
VIDEO: The muted reaction to positive EPS, in our view, reflects the cautious macro views (uncertainty) given the stubborn inflation reports. 1Q24 EPS seems more early cycle. (duration: 6:06). https://vimeo. com/943859472/4df31c0dd0? share=copy This week is light on incoming macro, so earnings is likely primary focus. Overall, it's been a good...
First Word
5 reasons we are buying this "inflation-fear" 2-day dip. Wed could be the turning date higher.
VIDEO: We discuss the 5 reasons we are buying this 2-day dip. Probabilities favor a turn upwards Wed Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we are buying this "inflation-fear" 2-day dip. Wed could be the turning date higher.
VIDEO: We discuss the 5 reasons we are buying this 2-day dip. Probabilities favor a turn upwards Wed Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: In past 2 trading days, 4 key inflation data points released, only 1 is hawkish. Yet, markets slash odds of a June cut. Hence, we lean higher odds of June cut vs consensus
VIDEO: There have been 4 important inflation-related reports since Friday. Only ISM manufacturing is hawkish yet odds of a June cut tanked to ~50%. We...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: The surge in new car inventory points to further goods deflation ahead = inflation falling like a rock = supportive of higher P/E
VIDEO: The important macro news this week is the piling up of new car inventory and this will put downward pressure on car prices and CPI Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:58). https://vimeo. com/963877484/ab7d7d31c5? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Equity markets near-term supported by "angry bears" but Jan CPI is important. Multiple factors still support upside though. 49ers win better for markets, FYI.
VIDEO: With S&P 500 at 5,000, we highlight the key drivers around markets and most remain supportive, except for the unknown leanings of the Fed...
First Word
Case for even STRONGER 2024 emerging. Lunar New Year starts 2/10 and 2024 is Year of the Dragon. Since 1871, S&P 500 up 13% median gain = 5,350. Since 1979, Russell 2000 outperforms 88% of time.
VIDEO: Chinese new year starts 2/10 and 2024 is the year of the Dragon. Since 1871, equities do particularly well during the Dragon years, gaining...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Case for even STRONGER 2024 emerging. Lunar New Year starts 2/10 and 2024 is Year of the Dragon. Since 1871, S&P 500 up 13% median gain = 5,350. Since 1979, Russell 2000 outperforms 88% of time.
VIDEO: Chinese new year starts 2/10 and 2024 is the year of the Dragon. Since 1871, equities do particularly well during the Dragon years, gaining...
First Word
4Q23 EPS: 4 reasons EPS results are better than appears on surface, including potential China bottom.
VIDEO: We discuss 4 factors that suggest 4Q23 EPS season stronger than many realize. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:56). https://vimeo....
