Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: April Core CPI (Wed) comes to swing of housing and auto insurance. We expect +0.29% or better = good vs consensus of +0.30%
VIDEO: The Fed has maintained a dovish tilt because it is waiting for housing and auto insurance to cool. The first signs could be April = fuels further May gains. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:53). https://vimeo. com/945979092/322bfe7c92? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY...
- First Word
April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"
VIDEO: We discuss how next week's April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53). https://vimeo. com/944656756/b28aa1c4b0? share=copy The S&P 500 is up ~2% so far this week, very impressive considering it has been a very light week on macro data...
First Word
Equities soft into March jobs report (Friday). The 6 most recent instances of weak into jobs day saw strong gains 1-week and 1-month later (5 of 6 times). We expect similar.
VIDEO: Thursday afternoon sell-off of 2% is creating a buying opportunity into Friday's jobs report. There are 6 times stocks fell 1-day and 1-week into the...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Equities soft into March jobs report (Friday). The 6 most recent instances of weak into jobs day saw strong gains 1-week and 1-month later (5 of 6 times). We expect similar.
VIDEO: Thursday afternoon sell-off of 2% is creating a buying opportunity into Friday's jobs report. There are 6 times stocks fell 1-day and 1-week into the...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Powell speech and ISM services incrementally dovish, raising odds of a June cut = affirms "buy the dip" even as shorts reload
VIDEO: Of the three key macro events today, this was on balance dovish, reflected in the fact that the odds of a June cut are...
- First Word
The surge in new car inventory points to further goods deflation ahead = inflation falling like a rock = supportive of higher P/E
VIDEO: The important macro news this week is the piling up of new car inventory and this will put downward pressure on car prices and CPI Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:58). https://vimeo. com/963877484/ab7d7d31c5? share=copy The S&P 500 has gained +0.75% in this shortened week and is tracking...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Today is unlikely the 1Q24 market top. Feels more like profit-taking as prices retrace gains of last 4 days. Proper today is "sell off on good news" not a bad CPI report.
VIDEO: Today's 2% selloff is an over-reaction to the hot CPI print. We also think it is a touch early to call for a top...
First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FS INSIGHT Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: On eve of Jan CPI, bonds have been discounting a "hot" CPI print, and stocks to an extent. Margin debt still far lower than Nov 2021 peak
VIDEO: We do not have a good sense whether the Jan Core CPI will be better or worse than consensus +0.30%, but we also think...
First Word
Equity markets near-term supported by "angry bears" but Jan CPI is important. Multiple factors still support upside though. 49ers win better for markets, FYI.
VIDEO: With S&P 500 at 5,000, we highlight the key drivers around markets and most remain supportive, except for the unknown leanings of the Fed...
