Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: An important AI week ahead. We advise continuing to "buy the dip" for May (and probably June)
The S&P 500 is closing out a strong week, with gains +1.4% this week alone, taking total gains for May to close to 6%. As we stated earlier this month, we expected markets to shift from "fear of May" to "buy in May" and as each week has passed, this...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: April Core CPI +0.29% MoM is a good thing, with auto insurance and shelter easing. Supports stocks higher in May.
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT April Core CPI came in at +0.29% MoM, below Street consensus of +0.30%. This was a clean "good" CPI reading, with the right components showing a slowdown:The 2 things we watched closely showed improvement: - Shelter slowed modestly to...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: March "hot" CPI spoiled by auto insurance. 35% of CPI basket < 3% inflation, highest since 2021. Each CPI selloff has been bought. This one should be too
VIDEO: The March CPI report had far better internals than headlines suggest. The hot number is entirely due to auto insurance and vehicle leasing, and the...
First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: March CPI creates max pain moment. Why is CPI "hot" but U Mich shows falling inflation expectations? "hot" CPI due to same issues --> auto insurance and auto-related
March CPI released came in "hot" with Core CPI of +0.36% vs Street of +0.30% and this is triggering a sizable sell-off in equities. This...
First Word
We are still buying dips (even these baby dips). March CPI could be upside catalyst for stocks to break this 18 day consolidation.
VIDEO: Stocks have been rangebound for 18 days now. March CPI could be upside catalyst on a good reading Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
- First Word
As we enter final week of June, global economy strengthened while inflation weakened = stocks up for "right" reasons and well setup for July
VIDEO: As we enter final week of June, the global economy's fundamentals strengthened this month, while inflation weakened = stocks up for the right reasons Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:37). https://vimeo. com/966242402/2f50341fb4? share=copy As we enter the final week of June, the global economy strengthened this month...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: NVDA 4Q23 EPS increase was $10.7b of S&P 500 EPS gain $34.9B (31%). AMZN another 30%. Ex-bottom 15 cos, S&P 500 EPS growth >14%
VIDEO: NVDA accounted for 31% of all profit growth in 4Q23, so a strong argument against a bubble. Inflation remains the unknown near-term. Please click below...
First Word
Yesterday shows still "gas in the tank" of current rally (17 weeks now). NVDA was good EPS = rising stock. Warning sign is stocks falling on good news.
VIDEO: With NVDA 17.43% EPS behind us, the focus will shift back to macro and inflation and Fed. Generally, we see potential positive surprise for Feb CPI (lower than...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: Today shows still "gas in the tank" of current rally (17 weeks now). NVDA was good EPS = rising stock. Warning sign is stocks falling on good news.
VIDEO: With $NVDA EPS behind us, the focus will shift back to macro and inflation and Fed. Generally, we see potential positive surprise for Feb CPI (lower...
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: We think it is too early to declare AI a bubble, looking back at dot-com and Nikkei surges
VIDEO: In both the dot-com and Japan stock surges, a massive drawdown was seen at the midpoint, and both then saw a further 10X increase. We...
