First Word
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
VIDEO: We detail 4 reasons we expect markets to view the July FOMC rate decision as dovish (duration 5:45). We believe the...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps.
The wariness of equities into this Wed July FOMC meeting is worse than market reactions in the past year. As we explain below, we now...
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First Word
Post-FOMC press conf (2:30pm), equities rallied 5D last 5 of 6 instances. Small-cap remains most compelling.
VIDEO: The Wed FOMC meeting key this week. Markets managed to rally 5 of the last 6 FOMC meetings. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: June Core PCE +0.18% MoM good enough for markets to raise odds of +50bp (2 cuts) in Sept = good. Supports "summer of small-caps"
The June Core PCE came in at +0.18% MoM. This was slightly higher than consenus but as we highlight below, there are 4 items driving...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always "early cycle" signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
VIDEO: Small-caps just generated a very important quantitative signal, moving >1% in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions. This has only happened at the start...
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Macro Minute Video
Important earnings and macro week ahead. June PCE (Fri) likely to shift higher odds of both July and Sept cut. Supporting "summer of small cap" rally.
VIDEO: President Biden officially announced he is not seeking re-election. While there may not be major market implications, the odds of a Trump White House...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
VIDEO: The current small-cap rally is tracking the Oct-Dec 2023 rally closely, including the timing of this pullback. So, we remain confident this is the...
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First Word
GRANNY SHOTS: Jul 2024 rebalance +8 adds/-10 deletes. SMID Granny Shots +23 adds/-25 deletes. July Super and Sleeper Grannies. WEBINAR WED!!!
TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK FOR OUR GRANNY SHOTS WEBINAR, PLEASE CLICK HERE. _GRANNY SHOTS: JULY 2024 REBALANCE_ This note is focused on the quarterly...
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Intraday Alert
INTRADAY ALERT: June Core CPI +0.06% MoM, way below consensus +0.21%. Inflation FALLING LIKE A ROCK
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FUNDSTRAT GLOBAL ADVISORS June Core CPI released this am and came in at +0.06% MoM, versus...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: June jobs report incrementally dovish = incrementally positive for stocks
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO SUBSCRIBERS OF FS INSIGHT Today's June job report was inline, despite a headline beat of jobs added at...
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