Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- First Word
5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development. Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks
VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive (7:44). https://vimeo. com/1075160515/0e1eb66519? share=copy We view the actions taken by CBP to delay the collection of China reciprocal tariffs as an unequivocal positive, because it points to a further de-escalation...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development. Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks
VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:44). https://vimeo. com/1075160515/0e1eb66519? share=copy ------------------------- _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here...
First Word
Trump "put" confirmed, alleviating important pressure value and confirming fork to the positive case
Today marked an obvious meaningful turn as the 90-day delay in the reciprocal tariffs firmly puts the U.S. back on a positive path. There are...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Trump "put" confirmed, alleviating important pressure value and confirming fork to the positive case
VIDEO: Wednesday was an important day because it signaled a turn in the White House and a turn of economic trajectory Please click below to...
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First Word
Reciprocal tariffs started last night. Markets remain hesitant as financial conditions tighten, but agree with Newton that near-term probabilities favor a rally.
NO VIDEO TODAY: I AM ON A CONTINENTAL FLIGHT TODAY SO UNABLE TO RECORD A VIDEO The fact that President Trump signed the executive order...
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- First Word
Adage still holds that "Buy stocks VIX >50, confirmed by move below 31."
VIDEO: We discuss why the VIX move below 31 is an important signal. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:26). https://vimeo. com/1075495046/c505d2f274? share=copy The most important signal Monday, in our view, is the VIX closed below 31, after surging to 60 last week. Looking back at 2008 (GFC) and...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We got tariff liberation day wrong. The White House broke a core covenant of capitalism. But stocks stretched to downside (and excessive recession risk) and we see high probability of de-escalation.
VIDEO: We believe stocks have overshot to the downside, even as technical damage is enormous and requires patience to repair. Please click below to view...
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First Word
Thursday’s negative -3% gap opening is 7th largest in 40 years and echoes of COVID. But after the close, hints that Trump wants to negotiate = positive
VIDEO: Market saw enormous selling pressure driven by the absurd levels of tariffs and the repeated comments by Lutnick that there is no negotiations. After...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Thursday’s negative -3% gap opening is 7th largest in 40 years and echoes of COVID. But after the close, hints that Trump wants to negotiate = positive
VIDEO: Market saw enormous selling pressure driven by the absurd levels of tariffs and the repeated comments by Lutnick that there is no negotiations. After...
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First Word
Shock and negative awe at Liberation Day. But terms so absurd, probabilities favor negotiations. 6 nations key
VIDEO: the terms of Liberation were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that these look to be a negotiating tactic. And ultimately only...
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