Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against market timing. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03). https://vimeo. com/1062616926/a4d5cd19f0? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of...
- First Word
Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet of items this week, Tariff day might be the "worst"
VIDEO: It is clear markets are most bothered by tariffs, which go into effect just past midnight on 3/4. With the surge in VIX, and hedge fund positioning lightening, it does set up for good risk/reward for the remainder of the week Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:17). https://vimeo....
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: TARIFFS: Equity markets "over-reacted" and glad to see positive developments thru the day
VIDEO: TARIFF UPDATE: Border concessions by Mexico and Canada suggest this is a "drug war. Creation of Sov wealth fund is now a "third put"...
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First Word
White House Tariff Order on Canada, Mexico, China likely triggers risk-off short-term, but we list 5 reasons this is an "over-reaction" and we would buy the dip
VIDEO: Trump is imposing tariffs to stop the flow of drugs and illegal aliens, different than the trade war of 2018. Thus, while we expect...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: White House Tariff Order on Canada, Mexico, China likely triggers risk-off short-term, but we list 5 reasons this is an "over-reaction" and we would buy the dip
VIDEO: Trump is imposing tariffs to stop the flow of drugs and illegal aliens, different than the trade war of 2018. Thus, while we expect...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:28). https://vimeo. com/1069441954/3d270e51f4?...
First Word
We continue to see the steep drop from Wed (-3%) as a "buy the dip" moment. Fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO: We discuss how the Fed remains dovish and fundamentals remain strong, thus, we are buying this deep dip. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We continue to see the steep drop from Wed (-3%) as a "buy the dip" moment. Fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO: We discuss how the Fed remains dovish and fundamentals remain strong, thus, we are buying this deep dip. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
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First Word
VIX surges 74%. 4 reasons probabilities argue this panic dip will be bought.
Equity markets fell sharply post-Dec FOMC rate decision, with losses of 3% to 5% across all major indices. The Fed is forecasting fewer cuts in...
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First Word
We expect stocks to finally exit the "zone of hesitation" after Dec FOMC rate decision (Wed 2pm ET). Even a "hawkish" cut supports a YE rally.
VIDEO: We think probabilities favor stocks rallying post-Dec FOMC rate decision, as this key uncertainty is lifted Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:22)...
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