Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:11). https://vimeo. com/1062988958/f1f23f394e? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet...
- First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against market timing. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03). https://vimeo. com/1062616926/a4d5cd19f0? share=copy The rise in tariff uncertainty and relentless selling in stocks in the...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Week tracking for a slight gain, another sign of market resilience. Jan jobs (Fri) could pull forward a rate cut.
VIDEO: Overall, its been a good week, with equities showing resilience. The jobs report matters on Friday. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:39)....
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First Word
GOOG 2025 capex guidance increase shows AI/data-center visibility strong. Jan ISM upturn points to accelerating small-cap EPS growth.
VIDEO: Incoming data supports equity prices. The ISM manufacturing also suggests small-cap EPS to accelerate in 2025_. _ Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: GOOG 2025 capex guidance increase shows AI/data-center visibility strong. Jan ISM upturn points to accelerating small-cap EPS growth.
VIDEO: Incoming data supports equity prices. The ISM manufacturing also suggests small-cap EPS to accelerate in 2025. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:58)....
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- First Word
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:28). https://vimeo. com/1069441954/3d270e51f4?...
First Word
Santa rally faltering, but fundamentals remain solid. Weakness into YE arguably positive for gains in early 2025.
VIDEO: We view the weakness in equities since Dec 24th as largely due to profit taking and arguably the drop in market breadth is somewhat constructive...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Santa rally faltering, but fundamentals remain solid. Weakness into YE arguably positive for gains in early 2025.
VIDEO: We view the weakness in equities since Dec 24th as largely due to profit taking and arguably the drop in market breadth is somewhat constructive...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Mark Newton notes a bounce likely underway. 2025 setup still positive
VIDEO: We discuss how 20% back-to-back years cannot be viewed in isolation, and we should look at the preceding year or 2022. This puts 3-yr cumulative...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Spending bill signed, avoiding a govt shutdown = good news. S&P 500 oversold as % stocks >20dma fell to 7%
VIDEO: We discuss how the set up into the final 6 trading days of 2024 are positive. And we look at the changes to the Fed's...
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