Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Today is first signs "Trump put" returning. But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook. Friday jobs key
VIDEO: Today saw the first signs that the "Trump put" might be returning. But growth worries weigh on stocks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:55). https://vimeo. com/1063397862/2360f02310? share=copy _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here ______________________________ PS:...
- First Word
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:11). https://vimeo. com/1062988958/f1f23f394e? share=copy While stocks could initially face volatility from a potentially soft February jobs report this...
First Word
Jan CPI (Wed) likely "calibrates" inflation views back to "falling towards 2%" = positive equity catalyst. Despite chop, we are buying the dip.
So far in 2025, equity markets have proven to be resilient, affirming that "buy the dip" remains the regime. There have been many "tape bombs"...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We expect a positive week ahead, aided by what we expect to be a benign Jan CPI report Wed
VIDEO: The buy the dip regime remains intact and we expect Wed's Jan CPI to quell inflation worries. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
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First Word
Week tracking for a slight gain, another sign of market resilience. Jan jobs (Fri) could pull forward a rate cut.
VIDEO: Overall, its been a good week, with equities showing resilience. The jobs report matters on Friday. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:39)....
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:30). https://vimeo. com/1070133142/92cf42abe9? share=copy _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Rise in US 10-yr yields clearly pressuring stocks, but Newton (Head of Technical Strategy) sees lower yields by year-end. Day 5 of "first 5 days" is Wed 1/8
VIDEO: We believe the ISM services and commentary around tariffs is the reasons yields jumped higher today. But Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, sees...
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First Word
S&P 500 closing above 5,881.63 on 1/8 (Wed) key to "first 5 days" -- don't let recency bias fuel bearish views.
VIDEO: We are closely watching the S&P 500 close on Wed 1/8 as this invokes the "rule of first 5 days" Please click below to view...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 closing above 5,881.63 on 1/8 (Wed) key to "first 5 days" -- don't let recency bias fuel bearish views.Video: Macro Minute:
VIDEO: We are closely watching the S&P 500 close on Wed 1/8 as this invokes the "rule of first 5 days" Please click below to view...
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First Word
2024 ending on a "whimper." Since 1928, weak final week = strong Jan 2025.
Equity markets are ending 2024 with a whimper. The S&P 500 has been down 4 of the 5 final trading days of 2024. Yet, equities...
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