Macro Strategy
- Intraday First Word
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Stronger than expected May jobs report doesn't derail positive view for June.
Today, the BLS released the May jobs report (8:30am ET) and the headline jobs added was far above consensus at +272k vs +180k Street consensus.On the surface, a stronger jobs report should be viewed as "hawkish" as stronger jobs means stronger economy and thus, potential inflationary pressures.By contrast, the S&P...
- First Word
May jobs report is key event to cap this week. We are buyers of stocks on Friday, but even stronger if the jobs report is soft.
VIDEO: The macro data this week has been supportive of softening inflation, hence, rise in expected Fed cuts this year to 2.0, but the key is Friday jobs. In the meantime, we see signs institutions adding risk as many missed the rise in May Please click below to view our Macro...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"
VIDEO: We discuss how next week's April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53). https://vimeo....
First Word
5 takeaways from earnings season and why muted reaction to beats is not "late cycle" signal.
VIDEO: The muted reaction to positive EPS, in our view, reflects the cautious macro views (uncertainty) given the stubborn inflation reports. 1Q24 EPS seems more...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 takeaways from earnings season and why muted reaction to beats is not "late cycle" signal.
VIDEO: The muted reaction to positive EPS, in our view, reflects the cautious macro views (uncertainty) given the stubborn inflation reports. 1Q24 EPS seems more...
- First Word
Powell today at Sintra confirms Fed acknowledging softer inflation, a contrast to FOMC meeting.
VIDEO: The key data release is Friday's June jobs report. If it is as weak as Goldman expects (50k below consensus), this should lead to a rally in Treasuries boosting an already seasonally strong July for stocks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:13). https://vimeo. com/974623808/93e582db4c? share=copy In the...
First Word
The coming week is an important "fragility test" for markets as equities sit at 50dma. While de-risking is "knee jerk" response, this dip will likely be bought. In contrast to 2022 Ukraine-war eve, Fed is dovish.
VIDEO: The market faces an important fragility test this week, but to us, the key lies in the amount of required de-leveraging and also Fed stance....
Macro Videos
VIDEO: Macro Minute: The coming week is an important "fragility test" for markets as equities sit at 50dma. While de-risking is "knee jerk" response, this dip will likely be bought. In contrast to 2022 Ukraine-war eve, Fed is dovish.
VIDEO: The market faces an important fragility test this week, but to us, the key lies in the amount of required de-leveraging and also Fed stance....
Macro Minute Video
VIDEO: Macro Minute: March "hot" CPI spoiled by auto insurance. 35% of CPI basket < 3% inflation, highest since 2021. Each CPI selloff has been bought. This one should be too
VIDEO: The March CPI report had far better internals than headlines suggest. The hot number is entirely due to auto insurance and vehicle leasing, and the...
First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: March CPI creates max pain moment. Why is CPI "hot" but U Mich shows falling inflation expectations? "hot" CPI due to same issues --> auto insurance and auto-related
March CPI released came in "hot" with Core CPI of +0.36% vs Street of +0.30% and this is triggering a sizable sell-off in equities. This...
