Macro Strategy
- First Word
- First Word
Adage still holds that "Buy stocks VIX >50, confirmed by move below 31."
VIDEO: We discuss why the VIX move below 31 is an important signal. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:26). https://vimeo. com/1075495046/c505d2f274? share=copy The most important signal Monday, in our view, is the VIX closed below 31, after surging to 60 last week. Looking back at 2008 (GFC) and...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Adage still holds that "Buy stocks VIX >50, confirmed by move below 31."
VIDEO: We discuss why the VIX move below 31 is an important signal. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:26). https://vimeo. com/1075495046/c505d2f274? share=copy ------------------------- _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here ______________________________ PS: if you are enjoying our...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons the CBP actions to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected China imports are a positive development. Looking for S&P 500 5,500 near-term and we focus on "washed out" stocks
VIDEO: The actions taken on Friday evening to delay reciprocal tariffs on selected semi-conductor and smartphone products is unequivocally positive. Please click below to view...
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First Word
2 steps forward, one step back for stocks Thursday… 32 stocks that might be sold-out (washed out)
VIDEO: Equities fell -4.4% after rising 9.5% Wednesday. This is not entirely surprising and not necessarily adverse. We think it makes sense to look at washed out...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 2 steps forward, one step back for stocks Thursday… 32 stocks that might be sold-out (washed out)
VIDEO: Equities fell -4.4% after rising 9.5% Wednesday. This is not entirely surprising and not necessarily adverse. We think it makes sense to look at washed out...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We believe there are signs that the S&P 500 has made a structural bottom. There are 5 possible "shoes to drop" which is why we expect markets to be range-bound, but this does not mean we need to make a new low
VIDEO: We believe there are signs that the S&P 500 has made a structural bottom. There are 5 possible "shoes to drop" which is why we expect markets to be range-bound, but this does not mean we need to make a new low Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
First Word
Reciprocal tariffs started last night. Markets remain hesitant as financial conditions tighten, but agree with Newton that near-term probabilities favor a rally.
NO VIDEO TODAY: I AM ON A CONTINENTAL FLIGHT TODAY SO UNABLE TO RECORD A VIDEO The fact that President Trump signed the executive order...
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First Word
Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
VIDEO: The message from the White House has changed from "no negotiation on tariffs" to "President has maximum leverage to negotiate" which we see as...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
VIDEO: The message from the White House has changed from "no negotiation on tariffs" to "President has maximum leverage to negotiate" which we see as...
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First Word
We got tariff liberation day wrong. The White House broke a core covenant of capitalism. But stocks stretched to downside (and excessive recession risk) and we see high probability of de-escalation.
VIDEO: We believe stocks have overshot to the downside, even as technical damage is enormous and requires patience to repair. Please click below to view...
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