Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Intraday Alert
Feb Core CPI downside +0.23% MoM better than "seasonal" fears and outright good
Feb Core CPI came in at +0.23% MoM, which is better than consensus of +0.29% MoM and the number is clean. That is, the downside read is due to a weakening of inflationary pressures.Overall CPI was soft for the right reasons, especially compared to the strong Jan +0.45%. - Shelter...
- First Word
The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later
VIDEO: This 10% correction is the 5th fastest in the last 75 years and history argues this is indiscriminate rage selling. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:23). https://vimeo. com/1064868423/8dd2a3056c? share=copy Equity markets fell 10% in the past 20 trading days, on the heels of escalating tariff war fears...
First Word
Equities continue to sell-off given lack of visibility of tariffs clouds near-term outlook but odds rising of a dovish Fed
VIDEO: Equities failed to follow thru from Friday's bounce. We discuss several important events this week including the Biz Roundtable Tue and Wed CPI. Please click...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equities continue to sell-off given lack of visibility of tariffs clouds near-term outlook but odds rising of a dovish Fed
VIDEO: Equities failed to follow thru from Friday's bounce. We discuss several important events this week including the Biz Roundtable Tue and Wed CPI. Please click...
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First Word
Last Friday was important as it showed economy facing "less of a growth scare" while we saw incrementally positive glimmers of both the Trump "put" and Fed "put"
VIDEO: Friday was an important day last week as we saw incrementally positive glimmers of a Trump and Fed put, while economy holding up better...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: While tariff headlines continue to roil markets, multiple reasons to expect markets to find their footing before the April 2 tariff deadline
VIDEO: Equity markets continue to be roiled by White House headlines. While the tariff deadline is 3 weeks away, this doesn't means stocks will see pressure until 4/2. A look at the 1962 Cuban Missile crisis shows that markets bottomed ahead of the conclusion of the crisis. Please click below...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Today is first signs "Trump put" returning. But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook. Friday jobs key
VIDEO: Today saw the first signs that the "Trump put" might be returning. But growth worries weigh on stocks. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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