Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: A look back at 2018 suggests that stocks likely rally post-tariff announcement (4/2) driven by likely drop in VIX (volatility)
VIDEO: We look at back at 2018 and we see stocks recovered from tariff news and rallied strongly. One of the fuels in 2025 is we see the possibility of a sizable drop in the VIX across all future expirations. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:27). https://vimeo. com/1067959984/9d45092b42?...
- First Word
March FOMC shows a dovish Fed and affirms "Fed put" remains in place, 1 of 4 positives this week so far
VIDEO: We discuss 4 incremental positives this week, including signs a tariff deal might be reached before April 2. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:52). https://vimeo. com/1067579683/33a4f5a55c? share=copy It has been a positive week for markets, bolstered by several key developments. While not presented in sequential order, these...
First Word
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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- First Word
Shock and negative awe at Liberation Day. But terms so absurd, probabilities favor negotiations. 6 nations key
VIDEO: the terms of Liberation were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that these look to be a negotiating tactic. And ultimately only 6 countries matter. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 11:23). https://vimeo. com/1072010033/c952521ccf? share=copy The unveiling of new U.S. tariff terms has jolted markets, but...
First Word
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns "never short a dull market
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
February Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update + SMID Granny February Rebalance +25 adds/ -24 deletes.
TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK FOR OUR MARKET UPDATE WEBINAR, PLEASE CLICK HERE. VIDEO: We discuss our macro views 6 weeks into 2025 including the...
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First Word
Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equities finally stage upside breakout on "bad news" = 2025 proving stocks remain resilient and resistant (so far) to large sell-off.
VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments Please click below to view our Macro...
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