Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:30). https://vimeo. com/1070133142/92cf42abe9? share=copy _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here...
- First Word
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward. Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:28). https://vimeo. com/1069441954/3d270e51f4?...
First Word
March FOMC meeting Wed is key focus this week. Incoming data likely shows broadening weakess (but is it priced in?). And is $NVDA rally a sign China deal is near?
For the first time in awhile (weeks?), the weekend was quiet from a policy perspective (consider last Sunday’s “there will be pain”). And this likely...
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First Word
While tariff headlines continue to roil markets, multiple reasons to expect markets to find their footing before the April 2 tariff deadline
VIDEO: Equity markets continue to be roiled by White House headlines. While the tariff deadline is 3 weeks away, this doesn't means stocks will see...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: While tariff headlines continue to roil markets, multiple reasons to expect markets to find their footing before the April 2 tariff deadline
VIDEO: Equity markets continue to be roiled by White House headlines. While the tariff deadline is 3 weeks away, this doesn't means stocks will see...
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- First Word
We got tariff liberation day wrong. The White House broke a core covenant of capitalism. But stocks stretched to downside (and excessive recession risk) and we see high probability of de-escalation.
VIDEO: We believe stocks have overshot to the downside, even as technical damage is enormous and requires patience to repair. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 12:00). https://vimeo. com/1073072971/08279eaef2? share=copy We want to apologize as the terms of tariff Liberation Day were far worse than we expected. The resulting...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet of items this week, Tariff day might be the "worst"
VIDEO: It is clear markets are most bothered by tariffs, which go into effect tonight. With the surge in VIX, and hedge fund positioning lightening, it...
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First Word
This week could bring both the Fed "put" and Trump "put" back into play, post-Feb jobs report. Last Friday's "stocks rise on bad news" was a good sign.
VIDEO: This week is shaping up to be a critical week, when there could be panic about a bad jobs report (fri) but this brings...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: This week could bring both the Fed "put" and Trump "put" back into play, post-Feb jobs report. Last Friday's "stocks rise on bad news" was a good sign.
VIDEO: This week is shaping up to be a critical week, when there could be panic about a bad jobs report (fri) but this brings...
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First Word
Even as White House wants lower rates (via DOGE, tariffs, etc), they want to avoid "stall speed" or recession, which means White House "put" still exists.
VIDEO: We believe the White House "put" still exists, as the White House wants to avoid an economy stalling into a recession. Please click below...
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