Macro Strategy
- First Word
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Growing signs of panic as we get close to 4/2 tariff "liberation day" but keep in mind Fed Powell speaks at end of week
VIDEO: Markets became decidedly mere risk-averse last week post-Auto tariffs and these fears increased over the weekend with news reports of $700b of tariffs ahead. But this is also the reason that peak anxiety is getting priced in now. And Fed speaks at the end of the week Please click...
- First Word
Tariff wars: when comparing 2025 to 2018, markets flipped to pessimistic far faster — only weeks in 2025 vs months in 2018
VIDEO: During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025 Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:30). https://vimeo. com/1070133142/92cf42abe9? share=copy Stocks have been rallying for two weeks, and while this strength may be difficult for many investors to...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: March Super Granny and Super SMID Granny Market Update
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:07) https://vimeo. com/1067149600/da81d7170a? share=copy [Video: Macro Minute: While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed...
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First Word
While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed FOMC to be dovish and positive for stocks
VIDEO: The absence of Washington headlines has been positive for stocks on Monday. As we said on Sunday, we expect this week to be positive for...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: While market expectations for March FOMC incrementally hawkish, we expect Wed FOMC to be dovish and positive for stocks
VIDEO: The absence of Washington headlines has been positive for stocks on Monday. As we said on Sunday, we expect this week to be positive for...
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- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
VIDEO: The message from the White House has changed from "no negotiation on tariffs" to "President has maximum leverage to negotiate" which we see as signaling the return of the Trump put. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 07:57). https://vimeo. com/1073395299/fa09750e5f? share=copy ------------------------- _____________________________ 45 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day....
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First Word
A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015.
VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the "rule of 10 best days" strongly argues against...
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First Word
Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet of items this week, Tariff day might be the "worst"
VIDEO: It is clear markets are most bothered by tariffs, which go into effect just past midnight on 3/4. With the surge in VIX, and hedge...
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