Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: June jobs report incrementally dovish = incrementally positive for stocks
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO SUBSCRIBERS OF FS INSIGHT Today's June job report was inline, despite a headline beat of jobs added at +206k vs +190k consensus. Offsetting this is unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (+0.1%) and prior month revisions were negative -111k. That is a big number.To...
- First Word
Powell today at Sintra confirms Fed acknowledging softer inflation, a contrast to FOMC meeting.
VIDEO: The key data release is Friday's June jobs report. If it is as weak as Goldman expects (50k below consensus), this should lead to a rally in Treasuries boosting an already seasonally strong July for stocks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:13). https://vimeo. com/974623808/93e582db4c? share=copy In the...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: The surge in new car inventory points to further goods deflation ahead = inflation falling like a rock = supportive of higher P/E
VIDEO: The important macro news this week is the piling up of new car inventory and this will put downward pressure on car prices and...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Median P/E (2025) ~16X, same as start of year = stay constructive. Softer retail sales and Manheim pricing raises odds of sooner Fed cuts.
VIDEO: The median multiple of the S&P 500 stock is still 16X P/2025 EPS, very reasonable in our view. Softer incoming data this week points...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Used car prices this week likely to highlight inflation falling like a rock
VIDEO: June is proving to be a strong month, and our S&P 500 5,500 target remains intact. Manheim used car prices likely to highlight that...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: This is the Summer of Small-caps with a rotation out of Technology
VIDEO: We want to re-emphasize that this is the summer of small-cap stocks, expecting a 10-week rally of 40% or more. Mark Newton also sees a Technology breather (DeMark 13 sells confirmed), fueling this rotation out of Technology to small-caps, regional banks and Biotech $IWM $KRE $BTK. Please click below...
First Word
JOLTS misses by -2.8 std dev as job market cools sharply = "bad news is good news." Rally at close in each of last 3 days is sign of institutional accumulation.
VIDEO: Stocks are inching higher in this first week of June. Notably, buying has taken place at the end of the day, which is historically...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: JOLTS misses by -2.8 std dev as job market cools sharply = "bad news is good news." Rally at close in each of last 3 days is sign of institutional accumulation.
VIDEO: Stocks are inching higher in this first week of June. Notably, buying has taken place at the end of the day, which is historically...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 6 reasons we see S&P 500 rising in June and possibly touching 5,500
VIDEO: We see a high probability that June is a positive month for stocks, supported by favorable economic and inflation data, as well as really...
First Word
Important macro week ahead and generally "bad news is good news" = markets prefer softer economic readings. But overall outlook for June positive
VIDEO: An important macro week ahead with the highlight being May jobs report on Friday. We overall remain dip buyers in June Please click below...
