Intraday Alert
Possible "local" peak in VIX raises probability of rally on Friday post-Aug jobs report
On Friday, August jobs report is released at 8:30am ET, the first of 3 key Sept macro events (CPI next week, FOMC week after). For...
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Intraday Alert
INTRADAY ALERT: July Core PCE inline and good details. U Mich good progress
Today had 2 data releases and both had positive implications for the path of inflation and inflation expectations, which in turn give Fed confidence to...
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Intraday Alert
INTRADAY ALERT: July Core CPI at +0.17% supportive of rate cut cycle starting Sept. Shelter + Auto Insurance account for +0.21% of inflation in the month.
The July Core CPI came in at +0.17% MoM, a better than expected versus consensus of +0.19% MoM. This is now the 4th consecutive "soft"...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: HANDHOLDING INTO WEEKEND: 7 upcoming events/catalysts to reverse de-risking due to "recession here and Fed made a mistake"
APOLOGIES. I HAVE BEEN IN TRANSIT CROSS COUNTRY LAST TWO DAYS, HENCE NO VIDEOS AND FEWER UPDATES. PLEASE READ THIS PRE-WEEKEND ANALYSIS CAREFULLY... VIDEO ON...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Over-reaction to July jobs miss. Soft jobs report still supports "soft landing" and gives Fed room for cuts. VIX surging 50% to 28 means panic, and short-term means sellers will be pressuring markets.
The July jobs report was a miss coming in at +114k vs +175k expected by the Street. The "miss" is triggering a major "risk off"...
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First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps.
The wariness of equities into this Wed July FOMC meeting is worse than market reactions in the past year. As we explain below, we now...
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