Intraday Alert
Thoughts ahead of FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET
At 2:00pm ET today, the FOMC will make its interest rate decision for September and a press conference starting at 2:30pm ET:The Street is expecting...
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Intraday Alert
MARKETING DECK: P/E should likely be expanding in 2026
NEW BULL VS LATE CYCLE: 6 REASONS IN FAVOR OF “NEW BULL”US COS SURVIVED 6TH MAJOR “STRESS TEST” YET P/E LOWERINVESTMENT OUTLOOK BETTER NOW THAN...
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Intraday Alert
MARKETING DECK: Looking ahead to 2026 argues for P/E expansion
OFF-SIDES: 5 REASONS INVESTORS ARE OFF-SIDESRECESSION COMING = SELL USA EQUITIESSUPPLY CHAIN HIT = SHORT US CYCLICALS & SMALL-CAPSVIX SURGE = INSTITUTIONS FORCED TO DE-RISKEND...
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Intraday Alert
Feb Core CPI downside +0.23% MoM better than "seasonal" fears and outright good
Feb Core CPI came in at +0.23% MoM, which is better than consensus of +0.29% MoM and the number is clean. That is, the downside...
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Intraday Alert
It's politics...U Mich inflation surge solely political divide. Rep see +0.1% vs Dems see +4.2%... Yup
Equity markets are under selling pressure due in part to a solid jobs report (actually a good thing) and intensified by a "really hot" U...
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Intraday Alert
Oct Core PCE +0.27% MoM is +0.23% ex-magazines. Affirms inflation "falling like a rock" and Fed stays dovish
Today's Oct Core PCE came in at +0.27% MoM, slightly better than consensus of +0.28%. The YoY came in at +2.80% YoY. The details of...
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Intraday Alert
MARKETING DECK: Stay on Target - Trump "put" + Fed "put" Positive for stocks
PROBABILITIES FAVOR A THANKSGIVING RALLY… ▪ Treasury Sec. annc’t removes “uncertainty” TRUMP "PUT" ▪ Fed “slowing cuts” still dovish FED "PUT" ▪ Nvidia earnings a...
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Intraday Alert
Oct Core CPI +0.28% MoM distorted by 30% rise in used car prices (ummm...no way). Sets stage for inflation to "fall like a rock" rest of year
The Oct CPI report is better than appears at first glance. And we think this is supportive of stocks continuing to rally into year-end, albeit...
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Intraday Alert
Sept Core CPI "hot" vs consensus, but internals show inflation still falling. Plus, too much cash on sidelines
The Sept Core CPI came in at +0.31% vs Street +0.26%. This is higher ("hot") than expected. But we think this report will have little...
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Intraday Alert
Better Sept jobs = good. Port strike suspended = good. Incremental good news past 24 hours = allowing tailwinds to shine
The Sept jobs report came in better than expected at +254k versus the Street consensus at +150k. This was a clean beat driven by restaurants...
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