We are past "max uncertainty" but not clear if we are past "max pain" -- $TSLA on Tuesday after the close will tell us how "washed out" key names are Array ( [cookie] => d3841a-b21f75-40e01c-3427b1-01efd8 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

It has been 18 days since tariff “Liberation Day” and the global economy has hardly been liberated and is still strangulated by the vast uncertainty of the existing tariff negotiations. I was at a wedding this weekend in New Orleans, with guests from all over the US. Not a single guest I spoke with had any “visibility” or “certainty” in their business or in their own minds. This is not entirely bad news.

• Likely at “maximum uncertainty” point: To me, I believe we are here or even past this point. Like I noted above, hard to become more uncertain than we are now.
• But “maximum pain” is probably ahead: But we may not be at the point of maximum pain for the economy or the stock market. The reason for this is somewhat obvious. There are fears that “another shoe” drops, among these:
  – Tariff war turns into “Cold War” with China
  – Economic ripples from “shock” lead to global recession
  – Financial crisis ensues from rapid financial de-leveraging
  – Inflation expectations surge leading to “greed-flation” and Fed is forced to hike rates
  – S&P 500 EPS estimates fall >20% from here
• Cadence of incoming news this week likely positive: That said, we believe the incoming news this week will lean positive. The area where the incremental positive emerges is trade and we just simply have to see where earnings season shakes out.
• Is Trump hinting at a major deal ahead? On Sunday evening at around 4pm ET, President Trump posted this on TruthSocial (all caps is his):
  THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON’T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!
• Is this a new code word for “deal” about to be announced? This is not as obvious as his April 7th post encouraging “this is a great time to buy” but it sure seems like he is suggesting that his critics will be proven wrong. Over the weekend, there were several hints of a possible deal with Japan:
  – CEA advisor Hassett suggested this Friday that we could see a “flurry of deals” this week
  – Nikkei reports that Japan could be easing import auto restrictions
  – other reporters suggest a deal with Japan is close
• This would be an incremental positive and further reduce market uncertainty. And this also pulls us away from the “economic armageddon” scenario. Hence, this would be good news.
• Probably reached “peak Fed hawkishness” = good: Similarly, we are probably past the point of “peak” Fed hawkishness. Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on any near-term Fed action with his view that the Fed needs to see what the final impacts from tariffs will be on the economy before the Fed acts. The Beige book comes out this week, but this is unlikely to incrementally sway the Fed.
• This is a positive for markets as this means the Fed could incrementally surprise markets. There is a lot of Fed speak this week (see below) and we think comments from here likely have asymmetry. Hawkish comments will be “expected” and less hawkish will be seen as “dovish”:
  – 4/21 Mon 8:30 AM ET: Goolsbee Appears on CNBC 
  – 4/22 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Jefferson Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit    
  – 4/22 Tue 9:30 AM ET: Harker Speaks at Economic Mobility Summit     
  – 4/22 Tue 2:00 PM ET: Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion     
  – 4/23 Wed 9:00 AM ET: Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks      
  – 4/23 Wed 9:30 AM ET: Musalem, Waller Give Opening Remarks   
  – 4/23 Wed 6:30 PM ET: Hammack Speaks on Balance Sheet     
  – 4/22 Tue 2:00 PM ET: Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Discussion     
• 1Q25 Earnings season underway: Tesla sets key tone but a lot of “bad news” priced in: Companies are not expected to give guidance. But one stock to watch is Tesla TSLA 5.99% . The company reports Tuesday after the close (4/22). We think this name is washed out and investors are bracing for a weak report.
• As for macro, there are some reports to watch, including the April Beige Book. But not as critical as other weeks this month. The week ahead has a few key events:
  – 4/23 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    49.3e
  – 4/23 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI    53.0e
  – 4/23 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales    680ke
  – 4/23 Wed 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book   
  – 4/24 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM    1.5%e
  – 4/24 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index   
  – 4/24 Thu 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales    4me
  – 4/25 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp

BOTTOM LINE: We are past “max uncertainty” but not clear if we are past “max pain”

As Tom DeMark has told me in the past “markets bottom on bad news” and the April 7th-April 8th lows were made with a positive catalyst (90 day pause). This is a reason that in my conversations with Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, there is an intuitive rationale to argue that stocks face a “W” ahead or as he puts it “two steps forward, one step back.”

• I think a “V” bottom is possible, though, if we get a positive “policy shock”
• such as a flurry of trade deals

This could happen. So I would not be too bearish. And as we said, there is signs many groups are washed out.

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Hot
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Mixed
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales Tame
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows Tame
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index Mixed
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: