Monday positive reversal from -1% open is a good sign.  Also encouraging to see $TSLA $MSTR #BTC outperform since 3/13/25 Array ( [cookie] => 9c31b0-c91a76-9ff52d-df9ee0-f59636 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: The positive reversal Monday is encouraging but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty ahead. What is notable is that several of MAG7 have stabilized in relative performance since 3/13/25

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:06).

Markets kicked off the week with surprising resilience as investors shrugged off early selling pressure and rallied into the close, despite the prevailing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade tensions.

• Monday opened with futures down nearly 1% and the S&P 500 briefly touching new intraday lows, but equities ultimately closed up +0.5%. This rally on bad news suggests underlying strength in markets, especially as this move occurred ahead of Wednesday’s tariff announcements. However, Mark Newton notes that the broader technical trend remains negative, cautioning that while near-term bounces are possible, a more durable bottom likely lies ahead in the next couple of weeks. A key level to watch is 5,700 on the S&P 500, which he sees as a critical support.
  
• With “Tariff Liberation Day” approaching on April 2, clarity is beginning to emerge. The White House is expected to unveil new tariffs at the Rose Garden—reportedly country-based rather than sector-based—alongside a broader announcement of plans to combat unfair trade practices. At the same time, China, Japan, and South Korea are preparing a joint response to U.S. trade measures as they coordinate to build a shared semiconductor supply chain. This heightens geopolitical tension, but also reinforces the growing structural shifts in global trade.
  
• These developments have practical implications. As Dan Ives noted, shifting even 10% of the auto supply chain back to the U.S. would take at least three years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. With over half of auto parts still sourced from abroad, tariffs could meaningfully raise input costs. However, Monday’s rally and relative global outperformance—China, Europe, Canada, and Mexico have all outpaced U.S. stocks since the February 18 highs—suggest investors are pricing in more than just protectionist drag.
  
• Monday’s rally may also have been supported by a sizable pension rebalance into quarter-end, with estimates of $41 billion in equity buying. At the same time, short positioning has built up significantly, according to a chart shared by RenMac, potentially setting the stage for further squeezes. Historical parallels like the Cuban Missile Crisis also offer some perspective—during that 12-day crisis, stocks bottomed five days before resolution and recovered two-thirds of their losses before tensions were fully defused.
  
• Looking ahead, markets face a flurry of macro catalysts. Tuesday brings March ISM Manufacturing and global PMIs, followed by February JOLTS, and capped off with Friday’s widely-watched March jobs report. Fed Chair Powell is also expected to speak Friday, and expectations are that his tone will remain dovish—another potential support for risk assets.
  
• Sector performance since the early March lows is mixed, but some tariff beneficiaries have begun to emerge. KMX 4.30%  and ORLY -0.89% , both tied to the auto ecosystem, could see tailwinds from tariff-related pull-through and pricing power. Broader leadership also reflects resilience — BTC 1.81% , MSTR 1.78% , TSLA 4.21% , and NVDA -0.07% , all of which led markets lower into early March, have since outperformed after retesting lows.
  
• Finally, with M2 now turning higher, this may imply an upward trajectory for crypto in the near term (global M2 advanced by 10 weeks tends to be correlated to Bitcoin’s price action). 

Bottom Line: Despite rising panic, markets should stay on target as tariff concerns could be peaking into “Liberation Day.”

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Key incoming data March:

• 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
• 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI Tame
• 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Dovish
• 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
• 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales Tame
• 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP Tame
• 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator Mixed
• 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame

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