Growing signs of panic as we get close to 4/2 tariff "libereration day" but keep in mind Fed Powell speaks at end of week Array ( [cookie] => 781a91-42c746-4d8189-a11d86-3c2eac [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 153995 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: Markets became decidedly more risk-averse last week post-Auto tariffs and these fears increased over the weekend with news reports of $700b of tariffs ahead.  But this is also the reason that peak anxiety is getting priced in now.  And Fed speaks at the end of the week

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 8:21).

Markets opened the week under intense pressure as investors braced for a potential crisis tied to escalating tariff rhetoric and continued unpredictability from the White House. With three trading days remaining until the expected unveiling of “Liberation Day,” anxiety has risen over the administration’s aggressive trade stance. 

• Last week, risk appetite deteriorated after President Trump proposed sweeping tariffs on auto imports, sending broad equity markets into a tailspin.
  – While Sunday’s interviews with Peter Navarro and President Trump added some clarity—specifically, a target of $6 trillion in tariffs over 10 years, or $700 billion annually—markets interpreted this magnitude as staggering.
  – This includes $100 billion from autos and another $600 billion across other trade partners.
• At face value, these numbers suggest an effective 20% tariff on total imports from the U.S.’s top 15 trade partners, which totaled $3.3 trillion.
  – This exceeds Goldman Sachs’ projections of a 15% headline tariff rate or roughly 9% when accounting for exclusions.
  – As a result, Goldman believes the risk of recession has climbed to 35%.
  – This disconnect between market expectations and White House ambitions is the core driver of the recent volatility.
  – The possibility of such sweeping tariffs is causing investors to pull back from risk assets, creating a “bleed” in markets with each passing day ahead of Wednesday’s expected announcement.
• However, there were small signs of de-escalation over the weekend, particularly regarding Canada, which had previously been in the administration’s crosshairs.
  – In a Friday conversation with Prime Minister Mark Carney, President Trump notably softened his stance, using the correct title and stating Canada is not among nations unfairly trading with the U.S.
  – This is important contextually, given Canada accounts for 13% of U.S. imports and ranks as the fourth largest trade partner.
  – While modest, these comments hint at potential flexibility from the administration as political ramifications begin to mount.
• The political fallout is already beginning to show in polling data.
  – According to the latest YouGov-CBS survey, 42% of Americans now say they are worse off financially—a significant rise from January, when only 28% felt that way.
  – This erosion of confidence could have downstream implications, as financial well-being is closely tied to political approval and investor sentiment.
  – Although Congress holds tariff authority under normal circumstances, the White House is using emergency-style justifications to push through measures, a tactic previously used with fentanyl.
  – Legal questions are emerging, and some Democratic lawmakers have pledged to challenge these actions, casting further doubt on the policy’s sustainability.
• Meanwhile, markets are reflecting rising levels of panic.
  – The VIX has surged back to previous panic highs, with VIX futures now showing a full curve inversion.
  – Despite the elevated volatility, relative outperformance from international equities—particularly in China, Mexico, Europe, and Canada—has been puzzling.
  – Similarly, the high-yield credit market has held up better than expected.
  – While spreads have widened slightly, they remain far below 2022 correction levels, when high-yield was signaling distress well in advance of a 12% decline in the S&P 500.
• If tariffs are indeed meant to slow the economy, and with Goldman projecting a 35% recession risk, current high-yield behavior seems oddly resilient.
  – That disconnect leaves open the possibility that the market may be overpricing the tariff risk, or alternatively, underestimating broader impacts. 
• This week’s macro calendar will be critical to shaping the path forward:
  – 3/31 Mon 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey    -5e
  – 4/1 Tue 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    49.8e
  – 4/1 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI    49.5e
  – 4/1 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings    7680ke
  – 4/2 Wed “time unknown”: Tariff Liberation Day
  – 4/2 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM    0.9%e
  – 4/3 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance    -$123be
  – 4/3 Thu 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI    54.1e
  – 4/3 Thu 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI    53.0e
  – 4/4 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls    138ke
  – 4/4 Fri 11:25 AM ET: Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
• TRUMP 2.0 Tariffs: Equities likely stabilize this week
  – Equity futures under selling pressure Sunday
  – Trump pushing for $700 billion in tariffs for April 2
  – Will equities sell into Wednesday? Monday important day but so much fear priced
  – VIX already back to inversion.  Global equity markets still outperform.
  – High-yield markets see less pressure
  – Dovish Fed Friday in face of important macro

Bottom Line: Despite rising panic, markets should stay on target as tariff concerns could be peaking into “Liberation Day.”

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Key incoming data March:

• 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
• 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI Tame
• 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Dovish
• 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
• 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales Tame
• 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP Tame
• 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator Mixed
• 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

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