Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:28).

Today’s macro data, particularly the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey, provided notable insights:

  • Headline number met expectations, but future consumer expectations significantly declined.
    • One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.1%, aligning with recent University of Michigan data.
      • Concerns driven primarily by trade policies and tariffs.
  • Recent pricing trends show moderation despite high inflation concerns:
    • Egg prices declined by 66%.
    • Orange juice futures dropped by 45%, the largest quarterly decline on record.
    • Gasoline prices fell by 11% year-over-year.
    • Consumer anxiety remains high due to trade uncertainties.

Consumer sentiment toward stock market expectations deteriorated significantly:

  • Experienced largest two-month decline in survey’s 40-year history.
    • Historical analysis suggests this type of sentiment decline often precedes strong market performance.
      • Median gains approximately 6% over the following three months.
      • Robust returns extend to six months.

Investor sentiment remains pessimistic but is supported by substantial liquidity:

  • S&P 500 traded sideways for eight months.
  • Money market cash holdings increased by approximately $800 billion during the same period.
  • Fundamental long-short hedge funds currently have their lowest equity exposure in five years.
  • Pension funds expected to purchase around $41 billion in equities this week.

Mark Newton notes near-term TSLA -3.99%  potential to reach 330 and eventually revisit all-time highs:

  • Tesla’s recovery exemplifies potential broader market rally, reflecting perceived administrative support aimed at stabilizing markets.

Bottom Line: Recent evidence suggests investors can trust this rise in stocks and stay on target.

Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

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Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally
Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

Key incoming data March:

  • 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
  • 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
  • 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
  • 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI Tame
  • 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI Tame
  • 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
  • 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Dovish
  • 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
  • 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
  • 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
  • 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
  • 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

Conference Board shows largest ever plunge in stock expectations, which is a contrarian buy signal 3M and 6M forward.  Further strengthens case for a V-shaped rally

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