VIDEO: Conf board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:28).
Today’s macro data, particularly the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey, provided notable insights:
- Headline number met expectations, but future consumer expectations significantly declined.
- One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.1%, aligning with recent University of Michigan data.
- Concerns driven primarily by trade policies and tariffs.
- One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.1%, aligning with recent University of Michigan data.
- Recent pricing trends show moderation despite high inflation concerns:
- Egg prices declined by 66%.
- Orange juice futures dropped by 45%, the largest quarterly decline on record.
- Gasoline prices fell by 11% year-over-year.
- Consumer anxiety remains high due to trade uncertainties.
Consumer sentiment toward stock market expectations deteriorated significantly:
- Experienced largest two-month decline in survey’s 40-year history.
- Historical analysis suggests this type of sentiment decline often precedes strong market performance.
- Median gains approximately 6% over the following three months.
- Robust returns extend to six months.
- Historical analysis suggests this type of sentiment decline often precedes strong market performance.
Investor sentiment remains pessimistic but is supported by substantial liquidity:
- S&P 500 traded sideways for eight months.
- Money market cash holdings increased by approximately $800 billion during the same period.
- Fundamental long-short hedge funds currently have their lowest equity exposure in five years.
- Pension funds expected to purchase around $41 billion in equities this week.
Mark Newton notes near-term TSLA -3.99% potential to reach 330 and eventually revisit all-time highs:
- Tesla’s recovery exemplifies potential broader market rally, reflecting perceived administrative support aimed at stabilizing markets.
Bottom Line: Recent evidence suggests investors can trust this rise in stocks and stay on target.




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Key incoming data March:
3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMITame3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods OrdersTame3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm ProductivityTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade BalanceTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor CostsTame3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm PayrollsTame3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle indexTame3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf ExpTame3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism SurveyTame3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPITame3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPITame3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle indexTame3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC DecisionDovish3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC FlowsTame3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business OutlookTame3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home SalesTame3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMITame- 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
- 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
- 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
- 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
- 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
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