S&P 500 close above 5,703 confirms rally underway.  $TSLA remains "Exhibit A" for a V-shaped recovery and why a Trump "put" exists Array ( [cookie] => 6a0721-e85056-b64076-2a0f30-3b16ba [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 169652 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: We discuss several positive technical developments today and why TSLA 3.79%  is Exhibit A on whether there is a V-shaped recovery in stocks and of the existence of a Trump put

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:59).

Markets opened the week on a strong note as the S&P 500 surged 2% and regained multiple key technical levels, including reclaiming its 200-day moving average and surpassing the 20-day moving average. This strength also allowed the index to close above 5,703, a level Mark Newton previously highlighted as pivotal, suggesting that a recovery back toward all-time highs is now underway. The combination of these technical breakouts reinforces the argument that the market is setting up for a more aggressive upside move.

• The rally also builds on our prior view that this week could mark the start of a “face ripper rally,” with bullish momentum gaining traction.
  – Contributing to this optimism are geopolitical developments, as tariff headlines are looking less severe than feared.
  – President Trump’s recent comments signaled that many countries could receive tariff exemptions, confirming suspicions that the administration is primarily focused on negotiating better terms for the U.S.
  – This tempering of trade war concerns alleviates one of the major market headwinds that had weighed on equities in recent weeks.
  
• Additionally, signs of a so-called “Trump put” are emerging, potentially laying the groundwork for a V-shaped recovery. A strong example of this can be seen in TSLA 3.79% , which is down approximately 50% from its all-time highs in just six weeks.
  – Calls for CEO Elon Musk to step away from his involvement in DOGE and refocus on TSLA 3.79%  have intensified.
  – Interestingly, this narrative intersects with President Trump’s apparent interest in supporting both Musk and the broader tech environment
  – The TSLA 3.79%  chart shows $330 as a key intermediate level, with potential to retest all-time highs should this V-shaped recovery unfold.
  – If TSLA 3.79%  does indeed drive such a rebound, this would likely spill over into the broader equity markets, supporting a similar V-shaped move in the S&P 500.
  
• Meanwhile, economic data this week is relatively light until Friday, when critical inflation readings are due. Regional Fed surveys and S&P Global PMIs released today were largely in line with expectations, offering little directional impetus.
  – Tomorrow, attention will turn to Case-Shiller home prices, new home sales, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
  – However, Friday’s release of February Core PCE and the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations will be the key macro drivers, especially given concerns over sticky inflation readings in recent months.
  
• Finally, technical conditions are further improving as volatility collapses.
  – The VIX futures curve, which had been elevated due to tariff concerns, flattened significantly today, providing additional room for equities to advance.
  – This follows what has been the fifth fastest equity market decline in the last 75 years, with prior events of similar magnitude generally linked to temporary shocks rather than structural shifts.
  – Given that both the “Trump put” and the “Fed put” appear to be intact, and fears of a trade-induced recession are diminishing, we believe the set-up is ripe for a continuation of the rally.
  

Bottom Line: All the ingredients for a face ripper rally are now in place as technicals and macro conditions align.

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Key incoming data March:

• 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
• 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI Tame
• 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
• 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Dovish
• 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
• 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
• 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
• 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
• 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
• 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: