Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

VIDEO: Today had first signs of capitulatory behavior as weak ADP report brought odds of a May Fed cut to 45% early in the day.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:11).

Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

While stocks could initially face volatility from a potentially soft February jobs report this Friday, this sets up a bullish scenario as a soft labor market increases the likelihood of the Fed cutting sooner in 2025.

  • Markets are preparing for potential turbulence due to anticipated softness in February’s employment data.
    – ADP’s employment report indicated just 77,000 jobs added, a significant miss versus consensus expectations of 160,000, driven by policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending.
    – LinkUp’s job listings data also suggests weaker employment growth at 95,000, further underscoring a potential downside surprise.
  • While a growth scare might initially cause negative reactions, historical patterns suggest it sets up a positive scenario for stocks.
    – Softer jobs data increases the likelihood of the Fed stepping in, acting as a bullish catalyst for equities.
    – Current inflation metrics from Truflation significantly eased to 1.42% year-over-year, down from 3.2% in January, driven by falling gasoline and car prices, which may be supportive of future rate cuts if reflected in the PCE.
  • Reflecting expectations of weaker employment, the probability of a May Fed rate cut briefly rose to 45%, with potential to jump to 100% if February jobs are weak.
    – White House policies are adding market support as evidenced by temporary tariff exemptions for automakers and increased diplomatic communications, reinforcing the “Trump put.”
    – Betting markets (polymarket) reflect this sentiment, with odds of tariff removal by May increasing significantly to 60% from 30%.
  • Technical analysis from Mark Newton points toward a market bottom forming, specifically highlighting the crucial ^SPX -0.33%  level of 5,865.
    – Newton has also turned notably positive on cryptocurrency, particularly BTC, fully returning to a bullish stance.
  • As we stated in our report yesterday, Investors must remain mindful of the significant opportunity cost associated with remaining sidelined, even during periods of volatility.
    – Historical data over the past 10 years highlights that missing the 10 best market days would transform average annual returns from +12% to -10%.

Bottom Line: We remain buyers on weakness, anticipating a bullish response to softer jobs data and signs of returning Fed and Trump puts.

Video: Macro Minute: Equity markets again buffeted by tariff headlines, but of the gauntlet of items this week, Tariff day might be the worst
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

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Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put
Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

Key incoming data March:

  • 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs
  • 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls
  • 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index
  • 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
  • 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey
  • 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
  • 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI
  • 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI
  • 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index
  • 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision
  • 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows
  • 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales
  • 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI
  • 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
  • 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
  • 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
  • 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
  • 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

Weak Feb ADP jobs might be harbinger of a weak Fri jobs report = return of Fed + Trump put

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