A "10 best days" probably coming this week. Since 1928, missing "10 best days" in a year cuts returns from 8% annually to -13% (or -2,100bp) and -2,200bp since 2015. Array ( [cookie] => 5b1d7f-5a00d3-9b8c92-6eb8d8-d274f4 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 80119 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: We are seeing signs of investor panic, and while many want to exit the market, the “rule of 10 best days” strongly argues against market timing.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03).

The rise in tariff uncertainty and relentless selling in stocks in the past few weeks has naturally prompted many investors to step to the sidelines. JPMorgan’s trading deck just issued a “tactical bearish call” and is recommending investors bet to the downside. We believe this is a mistake. And in fact, as we noted earlier this week, we believe equities could bottom this week. And more specifically, we want to highlight the rule of “10 best days”:

• Specifically, the stock market makes most of its gains in 10 trading days in any single year. This might surprise many investors. But here are the numbers:
  – Since 1928:
  – S&P 500 return:   +8%
  – ex-10 best days:  -13%
  – Differential: -2,100bp
  – Since 2015:
  – S&P 500 return:  +12%
  – ex-10 best days:  -10%
  – Differential: -2,200bp
• In short, this is an argument against marketing timing. That is, investors are better off “buy and hold” rather than try to tactically time entries and exits. This has been true for the past 90 years. And it is equally true in the past 10 years.
• If we are in a bear market, or slipping into one, these 10 best days will not help. However, we do not believe a bear market is near. (Recall, our 6 reasons 2025 is tracking above our original base case).
• More importantly, we believe a “10 best days” is coming:
  – AAII % net bulls -42% last week
  – Momentum MTUM 1.28%  fallen 8% in past 2 weeks
  – VIX term structure inverted
  – Trump “put” returns on weak Feb jobs
  – Fed “put” returns on weak Feb jobs
• The VIX term structure (4M less 1M futures) reached peak inversion on Tuesday at the open when S&P 500 was down -2%. That is a level of panic that we usually see near a bottom. We realize the spot VIX itself has not surged to 30 or more, but that may not be necessary.
• Similarly, Bitcoin was down sharply today and then rallied to close higher today. To us, that is a sign of risk-on returning and a reason we believe that bad news is increasingly priced in.
• In other words, markets are so oversold and pessimism so high, that a sizable rally is near. This is also consistent with the stance of our Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton. And this is true even as there are still some key events ahead.
• As for tariffs, Commerce Secretary Lutnick in an interview Tuesday spoke about the possibility that some of the Mexico and Canada tariffs could be rolled back, to the extent progress is seen. This is a positive development and a reminder that multiple catalysts exists for a possible “10 best day”
• The two highlights this week, in our view, are Bessent at the Econ Club of NY and Feb jobs/Powell speaking Friday. This remains a heavy week for macro data:
  – 3/3 Mon 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    52.7 vs 51.6e
  – 3/3 Mon 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI    50.3 vs 50.8e
  – 3/5 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI    49.7e
  – 3/5 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI    52.5e
  – 3/5 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders MoM    3.1%e
  – 3/5 Wed 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book
  – 3/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ    1.2%e
  – 3/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance    -129be
  – 3/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs    3.0%e
  – 3/6 Thu 12:00 PM ET: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent at NY Economic Club
  – 3/7 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-farm Payrolls    160ke
  – 3/7 Fri 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
  – 3/7 Fri 12:30 PM ET: Powell Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• But the key is we believe that markets might be shocked by a bad Feb jobs report. Consensus is 160k and if the figure is really weak, this will fuel a growth scare. But at the same time, we believe this will bring the return of:
  – return of Trump “put” as Trump doesn’t want the economy to slip into recession
  – this would require negating the austerity measures of DOGE
  – return of Fed “put”
  – Fed would have to start cutting

Bottom line: A gauntlet of a week, but stay on target

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Key incoming data March:

• 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI
• 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders
• 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs
• 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls
• 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index
• 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
• 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey
• 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI
• 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data
• 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index
• 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index
• 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision
• 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows
• 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI
• 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
• 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
• 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
• 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
• 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

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Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: