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- SMID Granny Shots November Quarterly rebalance today
- Updating list of Top Stock Ideas
- Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
- Chartbook linked below
- See below for SMID Granny Shots adds and deletes
To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.
Investment Ideas: Top large-cap stock picks + Super SMID Grannies
As we are rebranding our monthly webinar, we are introducing a new section of top stock ideas:
- The top large-cap stock ideas are based on a universe of 47 large-cap stocks that are widely held by investors and market cap >$50b
- The new top stock ideas follow the similar methodologies we use to identify super SMID granny ideas
- Essentially, we aim to identify the most timely stock ideas by cross referencing the trend analyses, quantamental works and technical studies.
- In more detail, the framework is composed of a criteria of 4 factors to narrow down to tactical buys:
– fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
– momentum rating based weighted average performances of recent period
– technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
– Mark Newton’s judgement on the technical outlook - Our top 5 Stock Ideas for November 2024:
– Meta Platforms Inc (META -0.07% ) <– carry over
– Tesla Inc (TSLA 0.48% ) <– carry over
– JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM -1.90% )
– Block Inc (SQ)
– Palo Alto Networks (PANW 0.25% )
- The bottom 5 stock ideas (to avoid) are:
– Boeing Co/The (BA -0.21% ) <– carry over
– NIKE Inc (NKE -2.82% ) <– carry over
– Pfizer Inc (PFE -2.68% ) <– carry over
– Alibaba Group (BABA -3.68% )
– Target Corp (TGT -0.68% )
REBALANCE SMID GRANNY SHOTS: +27 adds, (-25 deletes). YTD outperformance +2,497 bps
Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID granny shot portfolio strategy as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.
- We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
- The SMID Grannies shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,471 small and mid-cap stocks.
- From the SMID granny shots portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID granny shots portfolio.
27 rebalance additions are:
- Comm. Services: QNST -2.26%
- Discretionary: SHAK 0.33%
- Financials: BANF 0.86% , EWBC -1.17% , MCY 0.85% , SNEX 0.79%
- Healthcare: HIMS 3.08%
- Industrials: AIT -0.77% , AWI -1.04% , AYI -0.85% , EME 0.15% , ESE 1.65% , FIX 1.35% , GVA -0.19% , IESC 1.77% , NWPX -0.38% , PRIM 1.38% , STRL 3.69% , VMI -0.12%
- Materials: LPX -0.61% , USLM 0.65%
- Staples: SFM -0.16%
- Technology: IONQ 4.63% , ITRI -1.02% , OSPN 0.96% , TWLO 1.10% , ZETA -1.13%
25 rebalance deletions are:
- Discretionary: BLD -1.28%
- Energy: LNG 0.89%
- Financials: CFB, TREE -3.10%
- Healthcare: ADMA -0.89% , BPMC, DNTH 18.23% , MIRM 3.16% , MNKD -0.20% , NRIX 2.98% , RNA -0.06% , TGTX 0.13%
- Industrials: AIR 2.16% , BLBD -1.41% , FLS -1.24%
- Technology: ACLS -0.63% , AMKR 0.28% , CRUS -0.23% , DAKT 1.74% , FORM -1.12% , NSSC -0.10% , PLTR 1.17% (Moved to Large-Cap Universe), SPNS -0.07% , UCTT -1.97% , VECO -0.41%
SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper
“Super SMID Grannies” (long) and “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are derived from our SMID stock list of 44 ideas called “SMID Granny Shots”
- We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
– IES Holdings Inc (IESC 1.77% )
– Sterling Infrastructure (STRL 3.69% )
– Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT -0.77% )
– United States Lime & Minerals (USLM 0.65% )
– Hims & Hers Health Inc (HIMS 3.08% ) - The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
– Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM -2.27% )
– ePlus Inc (PLUS -0.34% )
– Impinj Inc (PI -0.82% )
– Shake Shack Inc (SHAK 0.33% )
– CarGurus Inc (CARG -1.93% )
Please see Mark’s technical note tonight for commentary on the Top 5 Stock Ideas and 5 Super SMID Grannies.
Key incoming data November:
11/1 8:30 AM ET: Oct Non-Farm PayrollsTame11/1 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame11/1 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Manufacturing PMITame11/4 10:00 AM ET: Sep F Durable Goods OrdersTame- 11/5: US Presidential Election 2024
11/5 8:30 AM ET: Sep Trade BalanceTame11/5 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Services PMITame11/5 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Services PMIMixed11/7 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Non-Farm ProductivityTame11/7 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed11/7 9:00 AM ET: Sep F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame11/7 2:00 PM ET: Nov FOMC DecisionDovish11/8 10:00 AM ET: Nov P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame11/12 6:00 AM ET: Oct Small Business Optimism SurveyTame11/12 11:00 AM ET: Oct NY Fed 1yr Inf ExpTame11/13 8:30 AM ET: Oct CPITame11/14 8:30 AM ET: Oct PPITame11/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Retail Sales DataTame11/15 8:30 AM ET: Nov Empire Manufacturing SurveyHot11/18 10:00 AM ET: Nov NAHB Housing Market IndexTame11/18 4:00 PM ET: Sep Net TIC FlowsHot11/19 9:00 AM ET: Oct M Manheim Used vehicle indexMixed11/21 8:30 AM ET: Nov Philly Fed Business OutlookTame11/21 10:00 AM ET: Oct Existing Home SalesTame11/22 9:45 AM ET: Nov P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame11/22 9:45 AM ET: Nov P S&P Global Services PMITame11/22 10:00 AM ET: Nov F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame11/25 8:30 AM ET: Oct Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame11/25 10:30 AM ET: Nov Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame- 11/26 9:00 AM ET: Sep S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 11/26 10:00 AM ET: Nov Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 11/26 10:00 AM ET: Oct New Home Sales
- 11/26 2:00 PM ET: Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 11/27 8:30 AM ET: Oct PCE Deflator
- 11/27 8:30 AM ET: 3Q S 2024 GDP
- 11/27 10:00 AM ET: Oct P Durable Goods Orders
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:
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