Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Tom Lee, CFA
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

VIDEO: We detail 4 reasons we expect markets to view the July FOMC rate decision as dovish  (duration 5:45).

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

We believe the probabilities are high that equities (S&P 500 SPY, Nasdaq 100 QQQ, Small-caps IWM) rally post-July FOMC rate decision with a potential 5-day gain of 4% to 5% (or more). This rate decision is at 2pm ET and the press conference is at 2:30pm. We discuss the rationale for this view below:

  • The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp (1 cut). A possibility of more than that is not necessary. And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such.
  • In the last 6 FOMC rate decision, post-Fed pivot of Sept 2023:
    – S&P 500 gained 5D later 5 of 6 times
    – median 5D return +2%
    – this is already positive
    – but we believe this July’s reaction will be even stronger.
  • Overall, we expect markets to interpret the Fed dovishly with the following reasons:
    – Since June FOMC (6/12/24)
    – FOMC not reflecting “super soft” May CPI and June CPI astonishingly “soft”
    – labor market and general business activity have slowed = softer future inflation
    – 2-yr yields fall 4.88% to 4.36%, a full 50bp
    – Equity markets down -5% into July FOMC rate decision.
  • Equities have been undergoing a painful correction, SPY -5% and QQQ -10% from recent highs, amplified by the rotation away from large-cap to small-caps. The Russell 2000 is flat during this -10% QQQ drawdown. The factors for this sustained rally for small-caps has been detailed in past notes, so I will not cover these fully in this note.
  • We look over the past 24 months, when stocks are down into the FOMC rate decision:
    – 5 instances since 2022, ex-2022 hike cycle (4 meetings)
    – 1/26/22 post-FOMC 5D: +5.5%
    – 9/20/23 post-FOMC 5D: -2.9%
    – 11/1/23 post-FOMC 5D: +3.4%
    – 1/31/24 post-FOMC 5D: +3.1%
    – 5/1/24 post-FOMC 5D: +3.4%
    – **we exclude panic 2022 period of Fed
  • These are significant gains, implying the S&P 500 could gain 200-300 points in the next week (a rally of +3.5% to +5.5%). This is very compelling in our view.
  • While many investors do not think 25bp makes a difference, here are some tangible reasons a Fed cut makes sense:
    – 30-yr mortgage has excess spread to 10-yr due to uncertainty
    – the spread could shrink from 270bp to 170bp (50-yr) avg
    – auto loans and short-term credit are priced off Fed funds and ST rates
    – housing, durables and autos are in a recession.
  • In an X tweet by Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research: “there’s something to the idea that the Fed keeps cutting until the housing market and other credit-sensitive parts of the economy turn higher.” I agree with this. There is a lag from when the Fed starts cutting to when we begin to see the price response.
  • Overall, the incoming macro data this week is supportive of a September rate cut:
    – 7/29 Mon 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey    -17.5 vs -14.8e
    – 7/30 Tue 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price 20-City MoM SA  0.3% vs 0.3%e
    – 7/30 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence   100.3 vs 99.7e
    – 7/30 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Jun JOLTS Job Openings    8184k vs 8000ke
    – 7/31 Wed 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ    1.0%e
    – 7/31 Wed 10:00 AM ET: 3Q24 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Press Conf.
    – 7/31 Wed 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision    No Change
    – 8/1 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Nonfarm Productivity    1.8%e
    – 8/1 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 2Q P Unit Labor Costs    1.7%e
    – 8/1 Thu 9:45 AM ET: Jul F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI    49.5e
    – 8/1 Thu 10:00 AM ET: Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI    48.8e
    – 8/2 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jul Non-farm Payrolls    175ke
    – 8/2 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Jun F Durable Goods Orders      -6.6%e

BOTTOM LINE: We see a rally post-FOMC meeting (Wed). Summer of small-cap thesis intact with IWM reaching $280-$300 implied

Overall, we believe risk-on moment is coming. And this will be led by small-caps. The body of evidence is growing for a sizable move for small-caps over the next 8 weeks. Lastly, take a look at the probabilities of a strong small-cap rally in the next 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M. If history is a precedent, the probability is 100%.

  • The “signal” is the Russell 2000 traded +/- 1% in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions. Outside of recessions/bears, this has only happened 10 times since 1979:
    – the years are: 1987, 1998, 2009 (4x), 2011, 2020 (2x)
    – these are all clear “risk-on” years and more importantly, “early cycle” years
    – yes, this signal is an early-cycle signal for IWM
  • The forward performance from here is impressive:
    return win-ratio
    – 1M +10% 90% (win-ratio)
    – 3M +18% 100%
    – 6M +31% 100%
    – 12M +51% 100%
  • The implied prices for IWM are as follows:
    return implied IWM
    – current $220
    – 1M +10% $243
    – 3M +18% $260
    – 6M +31% $288
    – 12M +51% $330

More broadly, our strategy recommendations remain, we stick with what is working. Keep in mind, that a short-term rotation away from Technology likely is underway:

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
Source: X.com

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps

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Key incoming data July 2024:

  • 7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra Tame
  • 7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade Balance Tame
  • 7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs Report Tame
  • 7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation Exp Tame
  • 7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate Banking Tame
  • 7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services Tame
  • 7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPI Tame
  • 7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPI Mixed
  • 7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein Tame
  • 7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle index Mixed
  • 7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales Tame
  • 7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDP Tame
  • 7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE Deflator Tame
  • 7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
  • 7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
  • 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision

Key incoming data June 2024:

  • 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade Balance Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
  • 6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs Report Hot
  • 6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPI Tame
  • 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision Tame
  • 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMI Mixed
  • 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
  • 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home Sales Tame
  • 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDP Tame
  • 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE Deflator Tame
  • 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame

Key incoming data May 2024:

  • 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Decision Dovish
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade Balance Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor Costs Mixed
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs Report Tame
  • 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Mixed
  • 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPI Mixed
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPI Tame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home Sales Tame
  • 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
  • 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDP Tame
  • 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE Deflator Tame

Key incoming data April 2024:

  • 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Services Tame
  • 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs Report Hot
  • 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPI Hot
  • 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPI Tame
  • 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales Data Mixed
  • 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDP Tame
  • 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCE Tame
  • 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost Index Mixed
  • 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data March 2024:

  • 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Tame
  • 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services Tame
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services Committee Dovish
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Dovish
  • 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report Mixed
  • 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPI Slightly Hot (as anticipated)
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPI Mixed
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP Tame
  • 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE Tame

Key incoming data February 2024:

  • 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
  • 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
  • 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
  • 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
  • 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
  • 2/14 PPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey  Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data Tame 
  • 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame 
  • 2/16 8:30am ET January PPI Mixed
  • 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-Month Tame 
  • 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP Tame
  • 2/29 8:30am ET January PCE Tame

Key incoming data January 2024:

  • 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
  • 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
  • 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
  • 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
  • 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
  • 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
  • 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
  • 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
  • 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
  • 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
  • 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
  • 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
  • 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
  • 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
  • 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
  • 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
  • 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

  • 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
  • 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
  • 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
  • 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
  • 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
  • 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
  • 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
  • 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
  • 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
  • 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
  • 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
  • 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
  • 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
  • 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  • 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
  • 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
  • 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November 2023:

  • 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
  • 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
  • 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
  • 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
  • 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
  • 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
  • 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
  • 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
  • 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
  • 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
  • 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
  • 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October 2023:

  • 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
  •  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
  •  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
  •  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
  • 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
  •  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
  •  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  •  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
  •  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  •  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
  •  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  •  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
  • 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
  •  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
  •  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
  •  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
  •  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
  •  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
  •  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
  •  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September 2023:

  •  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
  •  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
  •  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
  •  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
  •   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
  •  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
  •  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  •  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  •  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  •  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
  •  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
  •  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  •  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
  •  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
  •  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  •  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August 2023:

  • 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
  • 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
  • 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
  • 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
  • 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
  • 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
  • 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
  • 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
  • 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity Survey Neutral
  • 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
  • 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
  • 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
  • 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
  • 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July 2023:

  • 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
  • 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
  • 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
  • 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
  • 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
  • 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
  • 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
  • 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
  • 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
  • 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
  • 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June 2023:

  • 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
  • 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
  • 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
  • 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
  • 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
  • 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May 2023:

  • 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
  • 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
  • 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
  • 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
  • 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
  • 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
  • 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
  • 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
  • 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
  • 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
  • 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
  • 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

Disclosures (show)