INTRADAY ALERT: Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps.

The wariness of equities into this Wed July FOMC meeting is worse than market reactions in the past year. As we explain below, we now believe there is a high probability (>80%) of a 4% to 5% rally in equities post-FOMC, led by small caps ($IWM).

Since 2022, the S&P 500 has typically been up slightly into the FOMC meetings (5 days into meeting):- since 2022, median gain +0.2% 5D into FOMC, - 60% positive (win-ratio)- this time, far worse- S&P 500 ($SPY) -3% (-5% pa...

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