PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always "early cycle" signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

Tom Lee, CFA
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

VIDEO: Small-caps just generated a very important quantitative signal, moving >1% in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions.  This has only happened at the start of a major advance for IWM.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 05:09)

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

Since July 11th (June CPI), our stance is that June inflation gave the “green light” for small-caps to advance. In our view, this was a durable signal, even as many suggest this is only a “short squeeze.” Today, the Russell 2000 (IWM) just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and every single instance was an “early cycle” signal. In other words, today’s trading amplifies our view this is the “Summer of small-caps” and urges investors to gain exposure to small-caps.

  • The “signal” is the Russell 2000 traded +/- 1% in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions. Outside of recessions/bears, this has only happened 10 times since 1979:
    – the years are: 1987, 1998, 2009 (4x), 2011, 2020 (2x)
    – these are all clear “risk-on” years and more importantly, “early cycle” years
    – yes, this signal is an early-cycle signal for IWM
  • The forward performance from here is impressive:
    return win-ratio
    – 1M +10% 90% (win-ratio)
    – 3M +18% 100%
    – 6M +31% 100%
    – 12M +51% 100%
  • The implied prices for IWM are as follows:
    return implied IWM
    – current $220
    – 1M +10% $243
    – 3M +18% $260
    – 6M +31% $288
    – 12M +51% $330
  • As the above analysis makes clear, there is significant upside still for small-caps, despite their recent +12% gains and outperformance of large-cap stocks. As we previously highlighted, there is generally strong follow through in the weeks after a strong initial 2-week rally for Russell 2000.
  • In coming weeks, we will highlight the strengthening internals of small-caps — that is, the relative outperformance of small-cap sectors versus their large-cap indices. But we want to focus on the bigger signal generated now.
  • Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, also noted that there is a significantly improved technical backdrop for small-caps. He notes that convincing breakouts have taken place. And he views this as likely funded by a rotation away from large-cap.
  • There is important macro in coming days into the July FOMC meeting (Wed next week, 7/31):
    – 7/26 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PCE    0.15%e
    – 7/26 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp   2.9%e
    – §7/30 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Shiller Home Price May
    – 7/31 Wed 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Rate Decision     no change
  • The macro backdrop arguably is less important given the quality of the “signal” noted. Or perhaps, small-caps are simply signalling that a more favorable macro backdrop for small-caps is coming. What are those?
    – Fed cuts
    – Falling interest rates and cost of capital
    – M&A (IPO calendar opened up)
    – Regional banks improving liquidity
    – CRE finds a bottom
    – Less regulation
  • We have previously discussed the fundamental drivers behind this, and that is:
    – Rising probabilities of a Trump White House
    – Rising probabilities of a Fed cut within the next 8 weeks
    – Just one of the two need to happen, but both are possible
  • A Trump White House does have meaningful sector implications. We have talked about this in the past but the overall impact is:
    – Positive Bitcoin
    – Positive Small-caps
    – Positive regional banks
    – Positive CRE
    – Positive de-regulation
    – Positive M&A
    – Positive Cyclicals
    – Negative Energy
    – Negative Healthcare
  • When the Fed starts cutting, the impact on sectors is as follows:
    – Positive Bitcoin
    – Positive Small-caps
    – Positive regional banks
    – Positive CRE
    – Positive M&A
    – Positive Cyclicals
    – Negative Energy
    – Negative Healthcare
  • We realize many investors are skeptical about small-caps because of their belief of a recession risk, or because of general quality bias. However, please review carefully the table data we assembled. This is very convincing to me.

Bottom line: Summer of small-caps remains intact

This remains the summer of small-caps, in our view. We stay constructive.

More broadly, our strategy recommendations remain, we stick with what is working. Keep in mind, that a short-term rotation away from Technology likely is underway:

History also shows stocks strong in first half, outperform in the second half. Thus, we favor those S&P 500 names which gained >30% in 1H24. These are shown below.

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).

_____________________________

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Key incoming data July 2024:

  • 7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra Tame
  • 7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade Balance Tame
  • 7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs Report Tame
  • 7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation Exp Tame
  • 7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate Banking Tame
  • 7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services Tame
  • 7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPI Tame
  • 7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPI Mixed
  • 7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein Tame
  • 7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle index Mixed
  • 7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales Tame
  • 7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDP Tame
  • 7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE Deflator
  • 7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
  • 7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
  • 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
  • 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision

Key incoming data June 2024:

  • 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade Balance Tame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
  • 6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs Report Hot
  • 6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPI Tame
  • 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision Tame
  • 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMI Mixed
  • 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
  • 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home Sales Tame
  • 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDP Tame
  • 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE Deflator Tame
  • 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame

Key incoming data May 2024:

  • 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Decision Dovish
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade Balance Tame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor Costs Mixed
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs Report Tame
  • 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Mixed
  • 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPI Mixed
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPI Tame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows Tame
  • 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
  • 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle index Tame
  • 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home Sales Tame
  • 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
  • 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDP Tame
  • 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE Deflator Tame

Key incoming data April 2024:

  • 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM Services Tame
  • 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs Report Hot
  • 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPI Hot
  • 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPI Tame
  • 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales Data Mixed
  • 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDP Tame
  • 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCE Tame
  • 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost Index Mixed
  • 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data March 2024:

  • 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Tame
  • 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services Tame
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services Committee Dovish
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Dovish
  • 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report Mixed
  • 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPI Slightly Hot (as anticipated)
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPI Mixed
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
  • 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI Tame
  • 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP Tame
  • 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE Tame

Key incoming data February 2024:

  • 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
  • 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
  • 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
  • 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
  • 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
  • 2/14 PPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey  Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data Tame 
  • 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame 
  • 2/16 8:30am ET January PPI Mixed
  • 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-Month Tame 
  • 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP Tame
  • 2/29 8:30am ET January PCE Tame

Key incoming data January 2024:

  • 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
  • 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
  • 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
  • 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
  • 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
  • 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
  • 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
  • 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
  • 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
  • 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
  • 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
  • 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
  • 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
  • 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
  • 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
  • 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
  • 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

  • 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
  • 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
  • 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
  • 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
  • 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
  • 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
  • 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
  • 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
  • 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
  • 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
  • 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
  • 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
  • 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
  • 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  • 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
  • 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
  • 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November 2023:

  • 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
  • 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
  • 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
  • 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
  • 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
  • 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
  • 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
  • 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
  • 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
  • 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
  • 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
  • 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October 2023:

  • 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
  •  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
  •  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
  •  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
  • 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
  •  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
  •  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  •  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
  •  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  •  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
  •  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  •  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
  • 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
  •  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
  •  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
  •  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
  •  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
  •  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
  •  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
  •  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September 2023:

  •  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
  •  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
  •  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
  •  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
  •   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
  •  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
  •  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  •  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  •  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  •  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
  •  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
  •  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  •  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
  •  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
  •  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  •  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August 2023:

  • 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
  • 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
  • 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
  • 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
  • 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
  • 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
  • 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
  • 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
  • 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity Survey Neutral
  • 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
  • 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
  • 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
  • 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
  • 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July 2023:

  • 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
  • 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
  • 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
  • 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
  • 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
  • 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
  • 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
  • 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
  • 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
  • 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
  • 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June 2023:

  • 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
  • 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
  • 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
  • 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
  • 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
  • 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May 2023:

  • 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
  • 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
  • 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
  • 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
  • 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
  • 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
  • 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
  • 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
  • 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
  • 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
  • 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
  • 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always early cycle signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
Disclosures (show)