Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Tom Lee, CFA
Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

VIDEO: The current small-cap rally is tracking the Oct-Dec 2023 rally closely, including the timing of this pullback.  So, we remain confident this is the Summer of Small caps.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:46).

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

As we stated earlier this week, we believe this is the “Summer of Small-caps” with a sizable rally underway that will exceed the Oct to Dec ’23 gain (for IWM) of +27%. This rally, we believe, could be +40% over the next 10 weeks.

  • The primary driver, in our view, is the astonishingly low June CPI (+0.06% Core CPI MoM) gave the green light for small-caps to rally.
  • Why? Because it put the probability of a Fed rate cut in an upcoming meeting to >80%. This is the first time since 2019 that a near-term FOMC meeting has a probability of a rate cut of >80%. This currently stands at 97% vs 70% prior to the release of June CPI.
  • Recall, that +27% Russell 2000 (IWM) rally Oct to Dec 2023 was catalyzed by a Fed “pause” as the Fed saw inflation as largely normalizing. There was no Fed cut near-term, but merely the fact the Fed no longer was panicked about bringing down inflation at all costs.
  • Small-caps have been even more reviled in 2024, seeing a significant de-rating of P/E multiples with the median P/E (2025) now at 11X versus 16.5X for S&P 500, despite median EPS growth +18% versus +11%. So, the starting point for a rally is at an even better place.
  • Here is what might surprise you. We are only 1 week into this small-cap rally, but it is tracking very closely to the Oct to Dec 2023 rally. Here are 4 comparisons highlighted below:
    – first, both had an initial surge +8% to 10% = check, the same
    – second, Oct-Dec ’23 then saw -5% decline after surge
    – IWM lost -4.2% over past 3 trading sessions = check, the same
    – Oct-Dec ’23 then saw +25% rally, we expect this to be +30% or more
    – third, valuation, relative P/E (vs S&P 500) saw correction start at same place
    – check, the same
    – fourth, futures short positioning shows institutions even more “short” today
    – check, the same, arguably better
  • The similarity of the price performance is pretty interesting to us. I asked Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, when he expects the small-cap correction to end.
    – his answer –> “1-2 days… prob by Monday”
  • So, this analog still holds and as the chart below highlights, the rally from that point in 2023 to Dec 2023 was a continuous gain. That first -5% pullback was the only pullback from Oct to Dec 2023. Will it play out this way again? Possibly.
  • 2Q earnings season started last week and so far about 10% of the S&P 500 has reported. While market reactions have been mixed, the overall delivered earnings have been good.
    – 81% are beating expectations
    – overall beat is +500bp, which is sizable
    – next week, 143 companies report, so next week and the week after are the two heaviest weeks for earnings.

Bottom line: Summer of small-caps remains intact

This remains the summer of small-caps, in our view. We stay constructive.

More broadly, our strategy recommendations remain, we stick with what is working. Keep in mind, that a short-term rotation away from Technology likely is underway:

History also shows stocks strong in first half, outperform in the second half. Thus, we favor those S&P 500 names which gained >30% in 1H24. These are shown below.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
Source: Fundstrat

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
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Key incoming data July 2024:

  • 7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in SintraTame
  • 7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade BalanceTame
  • 7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMITame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs ReportTame
  • 7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation ExpTame
  • 7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate BankingTame
  • 7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial ServicesTame
  • 7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPITame
  • 7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPIMixed
  • 7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David RubensteinTame
  • 7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales DataTame
  • 7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle indexMixed
  • 7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business OutlookTame
  • 7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC FlowsTame
  • 7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI
  • 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales
  • 7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDP
  • 7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders
  • 7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE Deflator
  • 7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
  • 7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
  • 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
  • 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision

Key incoming data June 2024:

  • 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMITame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade BalanceTame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor CostsTame
  • 6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs ReportHot
  • 6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame
  • 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPITame
  • 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC DecisionTame
  • 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPITame
  • 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales DataTame
  • 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC FlowsTame
  • 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business OutlookTame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMIMixed
  • 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home SalesTame
  • 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame
  • 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame
  • 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home SalesTame
  • 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDPTame
  • 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE DeflatorTame
  • 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame

Key incoming data May 2024:

  • 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC DecisionDovish
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade BalanceTame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs ReportTame
  • 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMITame
  • 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationMixed
  • 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame
  • 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPIMixed
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPITame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales DataTame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC FlowsTame
  • 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business OutlookTame
  • 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home SalesTame
  • 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home SalesTame
  • 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame
  • 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDPTame
  • 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE DeflatorTame

Key incoming data April 2024:

  • 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed
  • 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame
  • 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot
  • 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot
  • 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame
  • 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed
  • 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
  • 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMITame
  • 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDPTame
  • 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCETame
  • 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost IndexMixed
  • 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame

Key incoming data March 2024:

  • 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame
  • 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish
  • 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed
  • 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated)
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame
  • 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
  • 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
  • 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
  • 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame
  • 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame
  • 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame

Key incoming data February 2024:

  • 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
  • 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
  • 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
  • 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
  • 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
  • 2/14 PPI RevisionsTame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame 
  • 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index Tame 
  • 2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed
  • 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame 
  • 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame 
  • 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame 
  • 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame 
  • 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame
  • 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame

Key incoming data January 2024:

  • 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
  • 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
  • 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
  • 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
  • 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
  • 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
  • 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
  • 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
  • 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
  • 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
  • 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
  • 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
  • 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
  • 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
  • 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
  • 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
  • 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

  • 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
  • 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
  • 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
  • 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
  • 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
  • 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
  • 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
  • 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
  • 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
  • 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
  • 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
  • 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
  • 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
  • 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  • 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
  • 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
  • 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November2023:

  • 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
  • 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
  • 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
  • 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
  • 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
  • 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
  • 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
  • 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
  • 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
  • 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
  • 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
  • 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October2023:

  • 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
  •  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
  •  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
  •  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
  • 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
  •  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
  •  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  •  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
  •  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  •  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
  •  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  •  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
  • 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
  •  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
  •  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
  •  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
  •  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
  •  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
  •  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
  •  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September2023:

  •  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
  •  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
  •  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
  •  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
  •   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
  •  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
  •  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  •  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  •  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  •  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
  •  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
  •  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  •  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
  •  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
  •  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  •  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August2023:

  • 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
  • 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
  • 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
  • 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
  • 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
  • 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
  • 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
  • 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
  • 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
  • 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
  • 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
  • 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
  • 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
  • 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July2023:

  • 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
  • 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
  • 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
  • 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
  • 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
  • 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
  • 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
  • 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
  • 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
  • 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame
  • 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from June2023:

  • 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
  • 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
  • 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
  • 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
  • 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
  • 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
  • 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May2023:

  • 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
  • 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
  • 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
  • 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
  • 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
  • 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
  • 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
  • 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
  • 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
  • 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
  • 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
  • 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

Summer of Small-cap intact. The -4% correction mirrors the Oct-Dec 2023 -5% correction. There was none after that.
Disclosures (show)