If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and "laggard" FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

VIDEO: If June Core CPI is as soft as we expect, we think this triggers a rotation to small-caps, industrials and Financials as well as towards “laggard” FAANGS.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:38).

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

Our base case remains that July is a positive month for stocks, supported by softening inflation picture and by the still lingering skepticism towards stocks. Inflation and the Fed’s reaction is the focus of the macro data this week (contrasting with last, where the focus was on “soft” or “hard” landing).

  • There are multiple inflation data points this week:
    – 7/8 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Jun NYFed 1yr Inf Exp    3.0%
    – 7/9 Tue 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Opt. Survey    91.5 vs 90.2e
    – 7/9 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used Vehicle Index    196.1
    – 7/9 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate
    – 7/10 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House
    – 7/11 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core CPI    0.21%e
    – 7/12 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PPI    0.15%e
    – 7/12 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing
    – 7/12 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp    3.0%e
  • Of these, the most consequential will be June Core CPI released on Thursday at 8:30am ET. The Street is looking for +0.20% Core CPI MoM and this is a break from the Street’s pattern of looking for +0.30% for each of the last 7 months. In our view, a print below +0.25% MoM would be positive.
  • The most important implication is how the Fed reacts to a likely soft inflation report. Powell has noted that risks for the economy are now two-sided, meaning the risk of staying too tight (weak economy) matters as much as fighting inflation. In fact, he stated this in his annual appearance to the US Senate Banking Committee:
    “the latest data show, that labor market conditions have now cooled considerably from where they were 2 years ago and I wouldn’t have said that until the last couple of readings….and deciding what to do with it in a way that manages both of those risks”
  • Overall, this is positive for equities, in our view, as this mitigates recession risk. In our view, inflation has been falling like a rock and the stubborn shelter and auto insurance have propped up CPI. But unfortunately, a “data dependent” Fed is also thus keeping interest rates unnecessarily high. So, the Fed chair acknowledging two sided risks is positive for stocks generally.
  • But it also likely supports a sector rotation and within the FAANGs, a rotation into the “laggard” FAANGS. The most interest rate sensitive groups within the S&P 500 are:
    – small-caps
    – Industrials
    – Financials (including REITs)
  • And we think there is a case to be made that these groups will benefit most from a Fed committing to cut rates. Fed futures pricing shows the market is not fully convinced of this. As of this writing, the odds of a Sept cut are 70%.
    – to me, this is hardly a market convinced
    – what figure shows a convinced market is unknown
    – but it is certainly higher than 70%
  • Equities are not that expensive. As we highlight below:
    – S&P 500 P/ ’25 EPS 17X
    – FAANG P/ ’25 EPS 31X
  • Is 31X too expensive for the leading AI companies with dominant market positions. And with EPS growth >20%? I don’t think so. And on 2026 EPS, the FAANG P/E drops to 27X. Again, hardly demanding.
  • But within the FAANGS, there has been notable rotation over the course of 2024:
    – 4/19 NVDA 1.81%  starts to lead
    – 4/29 META -2.91%  and NFLX -1.19%
    – 6/3 MSFT -0.52%
    – 6/11 TSLA 2.99%
    – 6/18 GOOGL -0.27%  and AMZN -0.38%
    – 6/21 AAPL 1.18%
  • So each of the FAANGS had a different leadership point. In our view, we think the “laggards” will assert themselves if the Fed begins to cut. What are the laggards?
    – short-term: NVDA 1.81%  which has underperformed past few weeks
    – long-term: TSLA 2.99%  which is 2-years underperforming
  • Wouldn’t Fed cuts particularly benefit TSLA’s automotive business (boosting sales)? Moreover, as many note, Tesla has not been fully recognized for its lead on both AI and robotics.

Bottom line: Stay constructive in July

We stay constructive. Our strategy recommendations remain, we stick with what is working:

History also shows stocks strong in first half, outperform in the second half. Thus, we favor those S&P 500 names which gained >30% in 1H24. These are shown below.

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs
If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

_____________________________

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Key incoming data July 2024:

  • 7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 7/2 9:30 AM ET: Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in SintraTame
  • 7/2 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade BalanceTame
  • 7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMITame
  • 7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 7/3 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 7/5 8:30 AM ET: Jun Jobs ReportTame
  • 7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NY Fed 1yr Inflation ExpTame
  • 7/9 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 7/9 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 7/9 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to Senate Banking
  • 7/10 10:00 AM ET: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services
  • 7/11 8:30 AM ET: Jun CPI
  • 7/12 8:30 AM ET: Jun PPI
  • 7/12 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/15 12:00 PM ET: Fed’s Powell Interviewed by David Rubenstein
  • 7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales Data
  • 7/16 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used vehicle index
  • 7/17 2:00 PM ET: Jul Fed Releases Beige Book
  • 7/18 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 7/18 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC Flows
  • 7/22 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI
  • 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales
  • 7/25 8:30 AM ET: 2QA 2024 GDP
  • 7/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders
  • 7/26 8:30 AM ET: Jun PCE Deflator
  • 7/26 10:00 AM ET: Jul F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 7/29 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
  • 7/30 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 7/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
  • 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
  • 7/31 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision

Key incoming data June 2024:

  • 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 6/4 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 6/5 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 6/5 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMITame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade BalanceTame
  • 6/6 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor CostsTame
  • 6/7 8:30 AM ET: May Jobs ReportHot
  • 6/7 9:00 AM ET: May F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 6/10 11:00 AM ET: May NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame
  • 6/11 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 6/12 8:30 AM ET: May CPITame
  • 6/12 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC DecisionTame
  • 6/13 8:30 AM ET: May PPITame
  • 6/14 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 6/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 6/18 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales DataTame
  • 6/18 9:00 AM ET: Jun M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC FlowsTame
  • 6/19 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 6/20 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business OutlookTame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 6/21 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMIMixed
  • 6/21 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home SalesTame
  • 6/24 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame
  • 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame
  • 6/25 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 6/25 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 6/26 10:00 AM ET: May New Home SalesTame
  • 6/27 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T 2024 GDPTame
  • 6/27 10:00 AM ET: May P Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 6/28 8:30 AM ET: May PCE DeflatorTame
  • 6/28 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame

Key incoming data May 2024:

  • 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC DecisionDovish
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade BalanceTame
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed
  • 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs ReportTame
  • 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMITame
  • 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationMixed
  • 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame
  • 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimism SurveyTame
  • 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPIMixed
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPITame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales DataTame
  • 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC FlowsTame
  • 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business OutlookTame
  • 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle indexTame
  • 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home SalesTame
  • 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home SalesTame
  • 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods OrdersTame
  • 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame
  • 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDPTame
  • 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE DeflatorTame

Key incoming data April 2024:

  • 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed
  • 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame
  • 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame
  • 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot
  • 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot
  • 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
  • 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame
  • 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed
  • 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
  • 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMITame
  • 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDPTame
  • 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCETame
  • 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost IndexMixed
  • 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame

Key incoming data March 2024:

  • 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame
  • 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame
  • 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish
  • 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
  • 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
  • 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
  • 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish
  • 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed
  • 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated)
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed
  • 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame
  • 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
  • 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
  • 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
  • 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
  • 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
  • 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
  • 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame
  • 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
  • 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame
  • 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
  • 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame

Key incoming data February 2024:

  • 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
  • 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
  • 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
  • 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
  • 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
  • 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
  • 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
  • 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
  • 2/14 PPI RevisionsTame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame 
  • 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame 
  • 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index Tame 
  • 2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed
  • 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame 
  • 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame 
  • 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame 
  • 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame 
  • 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
  • 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
  • 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
  • 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame
  • 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame

Key incoming data January 2024:

  • 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
  • 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
  • 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
  • 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
  • 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
  • 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
  • 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
  • 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
  • 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
  • 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
  • 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
  • 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
  • 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
  • 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
  • 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
  • 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
  • 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
  • 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
  • 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
  • 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
  • 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

  • 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
  • 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
  • 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
  • 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
  • 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
  • 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
  • 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
  • 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
  • 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
  • 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
  • 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
  • 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
  • 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  • 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
  • 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
  • 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
  • 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  • 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
  • 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
  • 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November2023:

  • 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
  • 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
  • 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
  • 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
  • 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
  • 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
  • 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
  • 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
  • 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
  • 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
  • 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
  • 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
  • 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  • 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
  • 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
  • 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
  • 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
  • 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October2023:

  • 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
  •  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
  •  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
  •  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
  • 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
  •  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
  •  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
  •  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
  •  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  •  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
  •  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  •  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
  • 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
  • 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
  • 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
  •  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
  •  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
  •  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
  •  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
  •  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
  •  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
  •  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September2023:

  •  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
  •  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
  •  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
  •  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
  •  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
  •  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
  •   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
  •  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
  •  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
  •  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  •  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
  •  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  •  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
  •  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
  •  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
  •  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
  •  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
  •  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  •  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August2023:

  • 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
  • 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
  • 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
  • 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
  • 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
  • 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
  • 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
  • 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
  • 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
  • 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
  • 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
  • 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
  • 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
  • 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
  • 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
  • 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July2023:

  • 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
  • 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
  • 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
  • 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
  • 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
  • 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
  • 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
  • 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
  • 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
  • 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
  • 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
  • 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
  • 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame
  • 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame
  • 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from June2023:

  • 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
  • 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
  • 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
  • 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
  • 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
  • 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
  • 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
  • 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
  • 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
  • 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
  • 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May2023:

  • 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
  • 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
  • 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
  • 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
  • 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
  • 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
  • 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
  • 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
  • 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
  • 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
  • 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
  • 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
  • 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
  • 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings

If June Core CPI (7/11) below +0.25%, likely triggers rotations in small-caps, Industrials, Financials and laggard FAANGs

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