We expect NVDA and broader rally post-NVDA results, pulling cash off sidelines. CDNS and SMCI attractive corollary plays.

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VIDEO: We think cash moves off the sidelines post-NVDA results.  We highlight 20 stocks most correlated to $NVDA.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:49).

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While many investors are, logically, sidelined ahead of Nvidia (ticker: $NVDA), the marquee AI company, fiscal 1Q25 (after the close Wed.) earnings – in our view, probabilities favor an NVDA and broad equity rally post results. We do not have insights into whether the company will exceed Street expectations, but our view is anchored in the seemingly cautious positioning ahead of results.

NVDA has moved ~9% (1 day), so a sizable move Thursday is expected. Below are the 1D reactions:- Date Qtr 1D change- 2/21/24 F4Q24 +16%- 11/21/23 F3Q24 -3%- 8/23/23 F2Q24 +0%- 5/24/23 F1Q24 +24%- 2/22/23 F4Q23 +14%- 11/16/22 F3Q23 -2%- 8/24/22 F2Q23 +4%- 5/25/22 F1Q23 +5% Looking at the last 8 reactions, the "muted" reactions have been in fiscal 3Q results (Nov 2023 and Nov 2022). And a sizable reaction seen post fiscal 1Q. The average is +20% in the last 2 years. So, we think the probabilities favor a large move post-1Q results. This is also not entirely surprising since NVDA has been consolidatin...
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